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    Sandra Brown, a former elections manager for Mesa County (Colorado) Clerk Tina Peters, was arrested on felony charges today of conspiracy to commit criminal impersonation and attempting to influence a public servant. Brown is now the third person to face felony charges for trying to copy and release elections data related to the 2020 election. More from The Daily Sentinel: In an affidavit in support of Brown’s arrest first obtained by The Daily Sentinel, a longtime investigator with the Mesa County District Attorney’s Office, James Cannon, wrote that Brown was involved from the beginning in an alleged scheme to make copies of election software during a routine “trusted build” in May 2021, and allegedly using someone else’s identity to do so. Brown and others plotted their actions on a call in 2021, which was recorded by one of the participants. Read more at The Daily Sentinel. RELATED STORIES:  Colorado orders Trump-loving Mesa County clerk to replace election equipment after security breach Judge bars MAGA election officials from midterms A third Colorado Republican election official under investigation for security breach Daily Kos relies...
    Democratic candidates running for secretary of state in 2022 (from left): Steve Simon (Minnesota), Cisco Aguilar (Nevada), Jocelyn Benson (Michigan), and Jena Griswold (Colorado). The Republican Party has reached such diseased depths of depravity that it now recognizes the legitimacy of only one type of election: one it can rig. Across the country, far-right exponents of the Big Lie that Donald Trump won in 2020 are running to seize control of the very infrastructure of democracy. These authoritarian conspiracy theorists know that if they win races for the post of secretary of state in key states, they can use every lever at their disposal to override the will of the American people and dictate their preferred outcomes. It would be the end of our republic as we know it, and we cannot—simply cannot—let it happen. That’s why Daily Kos has a plan. We’re endorsing a major slate of Democrats running in the most competitive contests for secretary of state this year, to ensure that we keep Trump’s minions far, far away from the power to administer elections. These are...
    What a week. Did you know that the only evidence of people tampering with voting equipment is evidence against Republican officials? True story. Did you hear about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ wife, Ginni Thomas? There are new revelations about her heavy involvement in trying to overthrow our government this past election. Did you know that Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, is clearly a crummy guy? Did you hear about how the Republican Party—after whining about baby formula, gas prices, and anemic foreign policy—voted against helping with any and all of those things? Have you heard about Pennsylvania’s GOP candidates and how they’re fighting one another like rats on a pile of garbage in order to see how they can win an election without the popular vote? Did you hear about Madison Cawthorn? Good news: The same type of investigation into campaign finance-related shenanigans might be taking place for MAGA gun fetishist Lauren Boebert. Here is some of what you might have missed: Large group of Republicans take stands: Pro-Putin, anti-feeding babies, pro-Big Oil price gouging It looks like when Elon Musk...
    Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock (D) was the top fundraiser among all Senate candidates in the first quarter of 2022. Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates covering the period from Jan. 1 to March 31 were due at the Federal Elections Commission on April 15 by 11:59 PM ET. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for every Senate incumbent up for reelection this cycle (excluding those who’ve said they’re retiring) and any notable announced or potential candidates. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also view this chart in spreadsheet form. In addition, we’ve put together a companion chart for the House. x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Below you’ll find an explanation of each column: Under "Party," a designation including "-inc" refers to an incumbent. "4Q Raised" is the amount the candidate received in donations from donors during the reporting period. This includes transfers from other committees but does not include any self-funding or loans. "Self-Fund" is the amount of contributions and/or loans...
    California Democrat Asif Mahmood turned in one of the strongest fundraising reports among House candidates during the first quarter of 2022. Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates covering the period from Jan. 1 to March 31 were due at the Federal Elections Commission on April 15 by 11:59 PM ET. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for every House incumbent (excluding those who’ve said they’re retiring) and any notable announced or potential candidates. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also view this chart in spreadsheet form. In addition, we’ve put together a companion chart for the Senate. x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Note that in states that have completed the congressional redistricting process, we have assigned candidates to the districts they are seeking in November; in states that have not, we have used current district numbers. Where candidates have not yet announced their intentions, we have assigned them to the districts we expect they will run in based on the best information...
    Each week, Daily Kos’ new podcast, The Downballot, explores key stories making news in the world of elections below the level of the presidency—from Senate to city council and beyond. This coming episode will mark our 10th so far, so we want to hear from you, our listeners (and soon-to-be-listeners!) about the races and topics you’d like to hear us discuss. So drop a comment below, email us at [email protected], or tweet at us at @DKElections. We welcome any and all questions, and they don’t even have to be in the form of a question! If there’s a specific election you’re interested in, just name it. We record each week at 5 PM ET on Wednesdays, so please get your thoughts to us before then. New episodes come out Thursday mornings, and to make sure you get the next one as soon as it drops, you can subscribe to The Downballot on all major podcast platforms. (If your favorite platform isn’t listed at the link, let us know!) And if you haven’t had the chance to listen yet, our most...
    What’s going on with state and local elections? How do I make sure I have a say in the things happening in my community? Why should I care? Daily Kos’ new podcast, The Downballot, aims to answer these questions and more. Every week, the Daily Kos Elections team will be highlighting critical downballot races—from Senate to city council—that have the power to determine policy outcomes in our communities and guide the futures of the Democratic and Republican parties. The Downballot launched this week with three episodes! Here are some highlights. In the first episode, Daily Kos Elections contributing editor David Beard spoke with Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas and political director David Nir about how Daily Kos Elections came to be. As Nir recalled, it was born out of a passion project of his, called the Swing State Project, which tracked elections in swing states: This was such a pioneering kind of ‘wild west’ time. Markos ... was able to just do stuff because it was cool and hire people because it was cool. And I was an attorney at the time, I would write the Swing State Project...
    Daily Kos Elections is extremely excited to announce the launch of our brand-new podcast, The Downballot! Every week, political director David Nir and contributing editor David Beard will highlight some of the key stories in the world of downballot elections—especially those that don’t always generate the big headlines. We’ll also bring on a guest to lead us in a deep dive of a major topic that will make you, our listeners, the best-informed political consumers around. Our first three episodes are already live, and you can find them wherever you enjoy podcasts: Ep. 1: We chat with Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas about the history of both Daily Kos and Daily Kos Elections, and why we do the work that we do. x Embedded Content Ep. 2: Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, whose knowledge of elections is unparalleled, gives us an exceptionally thorough overview of the top contests in the 2022 midterms. x Embedded Content Ep. 3: Nir and Beard talk about redistricting in Alabama and the GOP primary for...
    Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Leading Off ● Daily Kos Elections is extremely excited to announce the launch of our brand-new podcast, The Downballot! Every week, political director David Nir and contributing editor David Beard will highlight some of the key stories in the world of downballot elections—especially those that don’t always generate the big headlines. We’ll also bring on a guest to lead us in a deep dive of a major topic that will make you, our listeners, the best-informed political consumers around. Our first three episodes are already live, and you can find them wherever you enjoy podcasts: Ep. 1: We chat with Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas about the history of both Daily Kos and Daily Kos Elections, and why we do the work that we do. Ep. 2: Daily Kos Elections editor Jeff Singer, whose knowledge of elections is unparalleled,...
    North Carolina Democrat Cheri Beasley (right) was one of the top fundraisers among Senate candidates in the fourth quarter of 2021. Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates covering the period from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31 were due at the Federal Elections Commission on Jan. 31 by 11:59 PM ET. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for every Senate incumbent up for reelection this cycle (excluding those who’ve said they’re retiring) and any notable announced or potential candidates. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also view this chart in spreadsheet form. In addition, we’ve put together a companion chart for the House. x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Below you’ll find an explanation of each column: Under "Party," a designation including "-inc" refers to an incumbent. "4Q Raised" is the amount the candidate received in donations from donors during the reporting period. This includes transfers from other committees but does not include any self-funding or loans. "Self-Fund" is the amount of contributions...
    Former Rep. Max Rose, who is seeking a comeback, had one of the largest fundraising hauls for House candidates in the fourth quarter of 2021. Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates covering the period from Oct. 1 to Dec. 31 were due at the Federal Elections Commission on Jan. 31 by 11:59 PM ET. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for every House incumbent (excluding those who’ve said they’re retiring) and any notable announced or potential candidates. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also view this chart in spreadsheet form. In addition, we’ve put together a companion chart for the Senate. x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Note that in states that have completed the congressional redistricting process, we have assigned candidates to the districts they are seeking in November; in states that have not, we have used current district numbers. Where candidates have not yet announced their intentions, we have assigned them to the districts we expect they will run in based...
    Your support allows us to keep making great maps like this one The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Programming Note: This is the last Digest of the year! We'll see you again in January. Happy holidays! Leading Off ● This past year, Daily Kos Elections celebrated its 10th anniversary as part of the Daily Kos family, so we wanted to thank you, our loyal readers, for the steadfast support that's allowed us to thrive all this time. 2021 was another challenging year in many ways. Because of the pandemic, key census data was delayed by many months, meaning that the all-important task of redrawing the nation's election districts could not begin until much later than usual. As a result, the redistricting process has been crammed into an abbreviated timeline, so we've been working overtime to stay on top of all the new maps—tracking where things stand in every legislature and commission,...
    Below you’ll find Daily Kos Elections’ calendar of major-party filing deadlines, primaries, and runoffs for the 2022 elections. For a chronological version of this calendar, click here. Beneath the table, you’ll find detailed notes on requirements for runoffs, exceptions to filing deadlines, and important conventions. State Filing Primary Runoff Alabama 28-Jan-22 24-May-22 21-Jun-22 Alaska 1-Jun-22 16-Aug-22 Arizona 4-Apr-22 2-Aug-22 Arkansas 1-Mar-22 24-May-22 21-Jun-22 California 11-Mar-22 7-Jun-22 Colorado 15-Mar-22 28-Jun-22 Connecticut 7-Jun-22 9-Aug-22 Delaware 12-Jul-22 13-Sep-22 Florida 17-Jun-22 23-Aug-22 Georgia 11-Mar-22 24-May-22 26-Jul-22 Hawaii 7-Jun-22 13-Aug-22 Idaho 11-Mar-22 17-May-22 Illinois 14-Mar-22 28-Jun-22 Indiana 4-Feb-22 3-May-22 Iowa 18-Mar-22 7-Jun-22 Kansas 1-Jun-22 2-Aug-22 Kentucky 7-Jan-22 17-May-22 Louisiana 22-Jul-22 8-Nov-22 10-Dec-22 Maine 15-Mar-22 14-Jun-22 Maryland 22-Feb-22 28-Jun-22 Massachusetts 10-May-22 20-Sep-22 ...
    The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Leading Off ● Primary Calendar: Daily Kos Elections is pleased to unveil our 2022 primary calendar, where you'll find a complete list of major-party filing deadlines, primaries, and runoffs for all 50 states. One of the things we pay careful attention to at Daily Kos Elections is each state's candidate filing deadline, since it represents the point at which prospective candidates need to decide whether or not they'll actually run for office. The first deadlines are coming up very soon, in Texas on Dec. 13 and North Carolina shortly thereafter on Dec. 17. Filing season doesn't end, though, until July 22 in Louisiana, which traditionally brings up the rear. We also include important notes about those deadlines. Nebraska, for example, has a unique law that requires any incumbents, regardless of whether they are seeking re-election or another office, to file by Feb. 15;...
    Can you beat your fellow nerds to earn some Green's babka—the most delicious babka on earth? It’s babka time at Daily Kos Elections! Once again, the exceptional Green’s Bakery is generously sponsoring our annual predication contest, with babka for the winners! If you want the chance to win the world’s most delicious babka, as well as everlasting fame and glory, click here to submit your answers. To enter, you must have a Daily Kos account in good standing that was created on or before Oct. 28. You will also need to provide your email address so that we can contact you if you win. The deadline for submitting predictions is 6 PM ET Tuesday, Nov. 2—one hour before the first polls close. You may enter as many times as you like, but only your final prediction received before the deadline will count. Now, on to the competition! • Part 1, six questions. This is a traditional pick ‘em. We’re asking you to select the winners in six contests taking place on Tuesday: Virginia governor; Pennsylvania Supreme Court; Buffalo, NY mayor;...
    Iowa Democrat Liz Mathis was one of the top fundraising House challengers in the third quarter of 2021. Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates covering the period from July 1 to Sept. 30 were due at the Federal Elections Commission on Oct. 15 at 12:00 AM ET. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for every House incumbent (excluding those who’ve said they’re retiring) and any notable announced or potential candidates. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also view this chart in spreadsheet form here. In addition, we’ve put together a companion chart for the Senate. x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Note that with redistricting underway, we have attempted to assign candidates to the districts we expect they will run in in 2022 based on the best information available. Below you’ll find an explanation of each column: Under "Party," a designation including "-inc" refers to an incumbent. "3Q Raised" is the amount the candidate received in donations from donors during the reporting period. This includes...
    Florida Democrat Val Demings, who is running against Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, was the top fundraising Senate challenger in the third quarter of 2021. Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates covering the period from July 1 to Sept. 30 were due at the Federal Elections Commission on Oct. 15 at 12:00 AM ET. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for every Senate incumbent up for reelection this cycle (excluding those who’ve said they’re retiring) and any notable announced or potential candidates. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also view this chart in spreadsheet form here. In addition, we’ve put together a companion chart for the House. x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Below you’ll find an explanation of each column: Under "Party," a designation including "-inc" refers to an incumbent. "3Q Raised" is the amount the candidate received in donations from donors during the reporting period. This includes transfers from other committees but does not include any self-funding or loans. "Self-Fund" is the amount of...
    Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is up for reelection in 2022. We cannot lose the race. Arizona and Georgia’s big 2020 flips have gotten a ton of attention, and they were undoubtedly dramatic. Democrats turned out over half a million new voters in both states to narrowly overtake Donald Trump’s voter gains. Those states deserve all the attention they got. But they weren’t the only states to flip based on dramatic Democratic gains. Today, on Daily Kos’ The Brief, we’ll be looking more closely at Michigan. In 2016, Trump got 2,279,543 votes to narrowly edge out Hillary Clinton by 10,704 votes. Then in 2020, he added 370,000 more votes—a 16% increase. In a typical political year, that kind of voter gains would essentially guarantee back-to-back victories. But 2020 was anything but typical, and Joe Biden got an additional 535,000 votes to win a convincing 150,000-vote victory. Yes, Donald Trump motivated Democrats to turn out in larger numbers, but you don’t get over half a million new votes by sitting on your ass and praying for victory. Today, we will talk to...
    Below, Daily Kos Elections presents our chart of the results of the 2020 presidential election for the new congressional districts created during the 2021-22 redistricting process that will be used for the coming decade, starting in the 2022 midterms. For the sake of comparison, we have also included results for the same election under the old districts that were used in the 2020 elections. All results were calculated by the Daily Kos Elections team. You can find the chart below in spreadsheet form here, as well as a version with vote totals here. We will continue to add new data and incumbent names as states complete the redistricting process. For a complete statement of the methodology used to calculate these results, as well as links to the raw election data underlying them, click here. x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Districts that are either brand-new or discontinued due to reapportionment are noted with dashed lines in the appropriate columns. Note that the chart above includes both old and new districts, so there are 443 in total rather than the...
    ​The new redistricting cycle is set to begin in earnest on Aug. 12 with the release of key census data, and as they did a decade ago, Republicans are set to dominate the playing field to the detriment of both Democrats and democracy. Below we'll catalog how the redistricting process will work in all 50 states and which party—if any—is positioned to control how the next set of maps look, both at the congressional and legislative levels. We'll keep this post updated as new developments occur, so be sure to keep it bookmarked. Coming out of the 2020 elections, Republicans maintained a considerable upper hand over redistricting that will let them draw four or five out of every 10 congressional districts nationally. Democrats, meanwhile, will only be able to draw fewer than two out of 10, as shown in the map at the top of this post (see here for a larger version). This marks the third straight cycle where the GOP will enjoy a huge advantage in carving out new maps, an edge almost as extreme as the one Republicans...
    Ohio Democrat Nina Turner, who has led in the few publicly available polls of the 11th Congressional District special election primary. The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Leading Off ● Primary Night: My Cleveland Heart: Tuesday brings us special election primaries in Ohio's 11th and 15th Congressional Districts, two contests that have attracted hefty amounts of outside attention, and we'll be liveblogging the results! Our live coverage will begin at Daily Kos Elections when polls close at 7:30 PM ET Tuesday night. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. The Democratic primary to succeed Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Marcia Fudge in the 11th District, a majority-Black constituency that stretches from East Cleveland south to Akron, has turned into an expensive duel between former state Sen. Nina Turner and Cuyahoga County Councilwoman Shontel Brown; several other candidates are on the ballot, but none of them...
    Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who has held a wide lead in the polls for Tuesday's Democratic primary for governor. The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar. Leading Off ● Primary Night: Virginia is for Livebloggers: The fields for both of 2021's gubernatorial elections will be set Tuesday when primary voters go to the polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and we'll be liveblogging the results! Our live coverage will begin at 7 PM ET Tuesday night at Daily Kos Elections when the polls close in Virginia, while New Jersey will follow an hour later. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates. Virginia Republicans used a convention last month to choose nominees for the Old Dominion's three statewide offices, all of which are currently held by Democrats, and Team Blue will now be picking their contenders through a traditional state-run primary Tuesday. In Virginia, just like New...
    Can we hold the Senate in 2022? Can we expand our majority? Big questions. I love Daily Kos. I love the people who work here. I consider our writers some of the smartest people in the political space. And yet on our weekly podcast Daily Kos The Brief, we’ve been eager to feature experts from around the progressive world to discuss critical issues. That is to say, this is a Daily Kos podcast, but it’s not an ONLY Daily Kos podcast.  But today it will be, because I can see unequivocally that the Daily Kos Elections team is literally the smartest election-coverage team in the country. And so when we decided to talk about the Senate elections next year, it’s quite convenient knowing that the top experts reside in-house. And among them, Jeff Singer is an elections savant.  So join us this week, as we pick Jeff’s brain on next year’s Senate elections, and we further discuss why it is so important that we do so. (Hint: “Democratic Senate majority” and “rendering Joe Manchin less relevant” should feature prominently.)  The live show...
    Pennsylvania Democrat John Fetterman raised more money in the first quarter of 2021 than any other Senate challenger. Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates, covering the period from Jan. 1 to March 31, were due at the Federal Elections Commission on April 15 at midnight Eastern Time. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for every Senate incumbent up for reelection this cycle (excluding those who’ve said they’re retiring) and any notable announced or potential candidates. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also click here to view this chart in spreadsheet form. (In addition, we’ve put together a companion chart for the House.) x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Note: Because the Jan. 6 runoff in Georgia’s special election for the Senate fell during the normal first quarter reporting period, Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock’s recent FEC filings do not align with the start and end of the quarter. Warnock’s campaign said it raised $5.7 million from Jan. 6 to March 31, and it reported...
    Colorado Democrat Kerry Donovan, who is running against freshman Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert, was a top fundraiser in the first quarter of 2021. Quarterly fundraising reports for federal candidates, covering the period from Jan. 1 to March 31, were due at the Federal Elections Commission on April 15 at midnight Eastern Time. Below is our chart of fundraising numbers for every House incumbent (excluding those who’ve said they’re not seeking re-election) and any notable announced or potential candidates. Note that the playing field will change dramatically in many areas due to redistricting, a process that will begin later this year. As always, all numbers are in thousands. The chart, and an explanation of each column, can be found below. You can also click here to view this chart in spreadsheet form. (In addition, we’ve put together a companion chart for the Senate.) x Embedded Content x Embedded Content Note: The reporting period for candidates in the April 24 special election runoff in LA-02 runs from Jan. 1 to April 9. For candidates in the May 1 special election in...
    Following the conclusion of the 2020 congressional elections, Daily Kos Elections is pleased to unveil the most comprehensive guide you’ll find anywhere to the members of the new 117th Congress. This spreadsheet includes a wealth of demographic and electoral data on senators and representatives, as well as the states and districts they represent, providing key insight on the makeup of Congress and statistics that play a critical role in understanding both chambers. We've also visualized much of this data in maps and charts below. The guide includes our own calculations of the 2008-2020 presidential elections by congressional district that we recently finished for 2020, the 2012-2020 House election results, and the most recent Senate elections by state. It also includes vital census demographic statistics, such as the racial breakdowns (including by citizenship status) to provide the most accurate estimation of the eligible voter population. It further contains statistics about college educational attainment, median household income, and an estimate of the share of eligible voters who are white without a college degree, a demographic marker that has become highly salient in the Trump era and beyond. For...
    Daily Kos Elections is pleased to once again begin calculating the results of the most recent presidential election for every congressional district in all 50 states, starting with our first set of data from Oklahoma! You can check out our detailed spreadsheet that includes county-level results, and you can also find the top-line numbers in this chart, which will ultimately include figures for all 435 districts. That’s the page you’ll want to bookmark since we’ll be updating it continuously. We’ll also be parking all of our spreadsheets in our giant data repository. We’ll be pushing out new data on a rolling basis as 2020's results are officially certified and the precinct-level election results we need for our calculations become available. You can find out more about the process we use to calculate these numbers, as well as why it’s important to wait for final election results for each state, in our accompanying explainer post. This is the fourth presidential election for our "pres-by-CD project," as we informally call it, but there’s one key difference this time: A new round of redistricting is...
    The results of many of Tuesday's ​elections remain unclear. Daily Kos Elections will continue to track the developments in all uncalled races on our site​, in our daily newsletter, and on Twitter​. You can also bookmark our cheat-sheet of key races​ that we'll keep updating until every race is decided.
    Follow: Daily Kos Elections on Twitter Results: Live Map • All Races (use dropdown) Guides: Poll Closing Times • County Benchmarks • Hour-by-Hour Guide Key Races: Senate • House • Legislative Chambers • Ballot Measures • Redistricting Cheat-sheets: Key Race Tracker • Legislative Cheat-sheet
    Stick with us as we continue following the presidential results live, and check in with Daily Kos Elections as they follow the downballot races. Resources: The Daily Kos Elections guide to every key presidential swing state in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections Nov. 3, 2020 poll closing times map. Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 4:49:16 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner Fox News has put Ohio into Trump’s column. It’s not official, but of all the outstanding states it seems the most certain. Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 4:50:54 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner If you’ve been nervous about Virginia, a flood of votes have been counted, officially putting Biden ahead — and making all the people who run AP’s projection model breathe a sigh of relief.
    Follow: Daily Kos Elections on Twitter Results: Live Map • All Races (use dropdown) Guides: Poll Closing Times • County Benchmarks • Hour-by-Hour Guide Key Races: Senate • House • Legislative Chambers • Ballot Measures • Redistricting Cheat-sheets: Key Race Tracker • Legislative Cheat-sheet Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 4:09:05 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser We are five hours into Election Night at the downballot level, and...curiously...right now we are EXACTLY where we left off in 2018. Four House seats have flipped—two in favor of the Democrats and two in favor of the Republicans. Likewise, in the Senate, the Republicans flipped Alabama while the Democrats flipped Colorado.
    Follow: Daily Kos Elections on Twitter Results: Live Map • All Races (use dropdown) Guides: Poll Closing Times • County Benchmarks • Hour-by-Hour Guide Key Races: Senate • House • Legislative Chambers • Ballot Measures • Redistricting Cheat-sheets: Key Race Tracker • Legislative Cheat-sheet Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 3:30:51 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser SENATE: Right now, let’s get you caught up on some of the big-ticket Senate races, where the results thus far are a mixed bag. NC-Sen: This one is heading a not-good direction. With over 5 million votes tallied, Sen. Thom Tillis (R) leads Cal Cunningham 48-47. AZ-Sen: This one is heading in a considerably better direction. With most of the state’s considerably early/VBM counted, Mark Kelly (D) has a 55-45 lead over Sen. Martha McSally (R). IA-Sen/MT-Sen: Both Democrats lead here in very early returns, but since these are likely early/mail votes, expect both races to tighten. Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 3:33:00 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser HOUSE: NBC News has projected the Democrats will retain majority status in the House of Representatives. Wednesday, Nov...
    Stick with us as we continue following the presidential results live, and check in with Daily Kos Elections as they follow the downballot races. Resources: The Daily Kos Elections guide to every key presidential swing state in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections Nov. 3, 2020 poll closing times map.
    Follow: Daily Kos Elections on Twitter Results: Live Map • All Races (use dropdown) Guides: Poll Closing Times • County Benchmarks • Hour-by-Hour Guide Key Races: Senate • House • Legislative Chambers • Ballot Measures • Redistricting Cheat-sheets: Key Race Tracker • Legislative Cheat-sheet Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 2:31:16 AM +00:00 · David Jarman NC-06: The good news is, House Democrats have their first pickup of the night: according to the AP, Kathy Manning picks up the seat left behind by Republican retiree Mark Walker. (The less good news is this was entirely expected; it was considered Safe Democratic in the wake of major court-ordered un-gerrymandering.)
    Stick with us as we continue following the presidential results live, and check in with Daily Kos Elections as they follow the downballot races. Resources: The Daily Kos Elections guide to every key presidential swing state in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections Nov. 3, 2020 poll closing times map. Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 2:18:33 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner xJulietta Henry, Milwaukee County Board of Elections Director, just announced at the county courthouse that the final results from the presidential election will not be done earlier than 5 AM Wednesday. @journalsentinel— Meg Jones (@MegJonesJS) November 4, 2020 Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 2:19:07 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner Trump has now edged ahead in Texas. There are not a lot of votes in the cities remaining, though several suburban counties are yet to report. Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 2:20:10 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner Trump has pulled out to a 3% lead in Florida. No one has yet made an official call, but it’s hard to see where that many votes might be hiding.
    Follow: Daily Kos Elections on Twitter Results: Live Map • All Races (use dropdown) Guides: Poll Closing Times • County Benchmarks • Hour-by-Hour Guide Key Races: Senate • House • Legislative Chambers • Ballot Measures • Redistricting Cheat-sheets: Key Race Tracker • Legislative Cheat-sheet Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 1:30:39 AM +00:00 · David Jarman Delaware Senate: This is more down-in-the-weeds than usual, but apparently Sarah McBride has won a race in the Delaware Senate, making McBride the nation’s first trans state senator.
    Join us as we continue following the presidential results live, and check in with Daily Kos Elections as they follow the downballot races.  Resources: The Daily Kos Elections guide to every key presidential swing state in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections Nov. 3, 2020 poll closing times map. Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 12:56:43 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner Florida essentially all tied up, with still the blood red panhandle left to count. Not sure there are enough votes remaining in Broward, etc. to pull Biden past the influx Trump is about to receive. Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 12:59:07 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner South Carolina has been called for Trump. Again, no surprise. So far, everything is meshing with polls pretty closely. Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 1:03:45 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner AP throwing out a raft of new calls with the close of the polls at 8 ET Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts for Biden. Oklahoma, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama for Trump. No surprises so far.
    Follow: Daily Kos Elections on Twitter Results: Live Map • All Races (use dropdown) Guides: Poll Closing Times • County Benchmarks • Hour-by-Hour Guide Key Races: Senate • House • Legislative Chambers • Ballot Measures • Redistricting Cheat-sheets: Key Race Tracker • Legislative Cheat-sheet Wednesday, Nov 4, 2020 · 12:29:07 AM +00:00 · Steve Singiser It’s very early in the evening, and thus far, the downballot results have been mostly a wash. Democrats are currently leading in two GOP-held districts (KY-06 and IN-05), while Republicans claim a lead in one Democratic-held district (FL-26). But we have many, many miles to go.
    Follow: Daily Kos Elections on Twitter Results: Live Map • All Races (use dropdown) Guides: Poll Closing Times • County Benchmarks • Hour-by-Hour Guide Key Races: Senate • House • Legislative Chambers • Ballot Measures • Redistricting Cheat-sheets: Key Race Tracker • Legislative Cheat-sheet Tuesday, Nov 3, 2020 · 11:04:56 PM +00:00 · Steve Singiser Good evening (or afternoon, if you’re west of the Rockies)! It’s Election Night 2020, and downballot, we kick off right away with two House races and one Senate race on the radar. (If you’re looking for presidential updates, we have you covered there, too! Head over to the mother ship for that liveblog.) On tap in this first hour is a tossup House race in the Indianapolis suburbs (IN-05), and two longer shots in Kentucky: the much-publicized Senate battle between Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) and Amy McGrath (D). At the House level, the marquee race in the Bluegrass State at this hour is Republican Rep. Andy Barr facing a challenge from Democrat Josh Hicks.
    Polls are beginning to close and Democrats across the country are torn between stress-eating and stress-vomiting. For weeks, maybe months, we’ve obsessively read the polls, the early vote counts, and the tea leaves. Now we get to read election results. Daily Kos will be following the presidential results live, and Daily Kos Elections will be following the downballot races. Join us. Resources: The Daily Kos Elections guide to every key presidential swing state in 2020. The Daily Kos Elections Nov. 3, 2020 poll closing times map
    Democrat Brandy Chambers is running to flip a key seat in the Texas state House, one of the most hotly contested legislative chambers in the nation. Eighty-six of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers are on the ballot on Nov. 3, and Democrats are well-positioned to make gains in this crucial last election before redistricting begins next year. In fact, they’re on offense almost everywhere and could, on a very good night, pick up 10 chambers or even more. Republicans, meanwhile, have few opportunities on offense and might wind up with no flips at all, as was the case for them in 2018. In total, 5,876 legislative seats are going before voters, with about 3,800 races contested by both major parties. That means we have a ton of hotly competitive races on tap, though, and many chambers that could change hands. Below we’ll run through the states that are likely to see the most action on election night. Note that all vacancies are assigned to the party that previously controlled those seats. Potential Flips Alaska Senate and House ...
    All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot in the Nov. 3 elections, and Democrats look all but assured of holding the majority they won two years ago. If anything, they’re likely to increase their numbers, as Republicans are once again playing defense in many suburban districts that have increasingly rejected the GOP in recent years. Below, you’ll find a complete guide to all of this year’s competitive House races, organized alphabetically, based on the ratings issued by Daily Kos Elections. Every district not included here is rated “Safe” for the party that currently holds it. (For more on what these ratings mean, please see this post.) If you click on a rating, you’ll get taken to a page showing all public polling for that race (if there’s been any) as well as our average of the polls and, if we’ve ever changed our rating on the contest, our explanation for doing so. Toward the right, you’ll find links for maps of every district, as well as our unique snapshot, which shows you a wealth of...
    Joe Biden addresses a "drive-in" rally in Georgia, one of roughly a dozen swing states to watch on Election Day. After what’s felt like an interminable election cycle, we are finally on the doorstep to Election Day—even if “Election Day” is now something of a misnomer. In the presidential race, most states are already safely in the hands of either Joe Biden or Donald Trump. Biden likely starts with about 200 to 225 electoral votes, while Trump begins with around 125 to 150. What matters, of course, is what lies between: a dozen states, holding the key to 195 electoral votes. What’s notable is which states have hopped on—and fallen off—the target list. Colorado and Virginia, swingy or even red-leaning states for a generation, now seem likely to support Biden by double digits. Meanwhile, Texas and Georgia arrive squarely on the tossup roster, and a handful of states Trump flipped have moved back toward parity, like Iowa and Ohio. It is in these twelve states that the bulk of the campaign visits, money, and attention have been lavished. In a sign of how difficult...
    Colorado Democrat John Hickenlooper, who has the best chance of flipping a Republican-held Senate seat in the nation. The battle for the Senate looms almost as large as the race for the White House, and it is large indeed: Of the 35 contests on the ballot on Nov. 3, Daily Kos Elections rates 15 of them as competitive. The emergence of such a gigantic playing field has benefited the Democratic Party, since fully a dozen of these in-play Senate seats are held by Republicans while just three belong to Democrats. Of course, not every race is equally competitive, and some feature more prominently than others on the various roads Democrats might take back toward a majority. To help guide you through this arena, we’ve put together this state-by-state catalog of all the key Senate races, including the major players, the polling, and the most important developments over the course of the election cycle. Let’s start with a brief review of what the target is. With the Senate currently seating 47 Democrats (including independents who caucus with the Democrats) and 53...
    Election night is almost here—Tuesday!—and we have a lot of exciting races in store. As Democrats fight to reclaim the White House, they're also engaged in a cross-country battle to win back the Senate. In addition, Team Blue is looking to pad its House majority, as well as hold some important governorships. What follows is an hour-by-hour guide to this year's key House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. With the coronavirus pandemic fueling a surge in mail voting, however, election watchers everywhere should expect that we might not learn the winners in every race for some time—perhaps days or even weeks. At the top of this post is our map showing poll closing times across the country. All times are Eastern, though we also have versions for each of the other five U.S. timezones. And for a quick reference for every competitive contest in the nation, check out our race ratings page. 6 PM ET Indiana (Eastern Time Zone), and Kentucky (Eastern Time Zone) • Indiana: The most competitive contest in the Hoosier State by far is the open seat race...
    This, too, could be yours. No, you’re not dreaming: The Daily Kos Elections prediction contest is back! We’re thrilled to announce that our good friends at the exceptional Green’s Bakery have generously donated the prizes for the top three finishers: $50 gift cards for use at the Green’s online store! That’s right: If you dare, you can think outside the babka. If you want a chance to earn some of New York's finest baked goods, we're asking you to pick the winners in all of the races—for Senate, House, and a few other surprises—that we've rated as Tossups as of Friday afternoon. And, as a tie-breaker, we want you to guess the vote share of each of the candidates in Indiana’s three-way gubernatorial election. You can enter as many times as you like using the form below, up until the contest deadline (5 PM ET Tuesday—one hour before the first polls close), but if you enter more than once, only your final submission will count. The contest is only open to Daily Kos users in good standing, with accounts created prior to this posting....
    Georgia Democrats Jon Ossoff (at left) and Raphael Warnock. Democrats are fighting to turn Georgia blue this year harder than ever before, so much so that Joe Biden’s campaign just announced Kamala Harris would return to the Peach State on Sunday, two days ahead of the election. But just below the top of the ticket, the state’s dual Senate races could deliver a political earthquake of even greater magnitude. Reflecting the increased competitiveness of both contests, we’re moving both to “Tossup” status. • GA-Sen-A (Lean R to Tossup): Late polls have shown momentum for Democrat Jon Ossoff in Georgia's regular Senate election, and he now has a small lead over Republican Sen. David Perdue in the Daily Kos Elections polling average. Those surveys also point to the tantalizing possibility that Ossoff could capture an outright majority of the vote and win without a Jan. 5 runoff. But even if this race does go to a second round, there are many reasons to think that the turnout problems that have plagued Peach State Democrats in past overtime contests will no longer...
    Bookmark Daily Kos Elections’ handy map of poll closing times for the Nov. 3, 2020 general elections so that you can know when to start checking returns in each state on election night. This is the map used by Nancy Pelosi and the Obama campaign! Note that all times on the above map are Eastern, not local. You can download large-format maps keyed to each U.S. time zone below:  Eastern | Central | Mountain | Pacific | Alaska | Hawaii We also have a version of the Eastern Time Zone map with each state’s closing time individually labeled, to aid those who are color-blind. Check back in with us when polls start closing at 6 PM ET Tuesday for our liveblog of all of this year’s key elections. Follow along by printing out and coloring in your own maps for the Electoral College, the Senate, and the House. And in the meantime, sign up for the Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest to get the most comprehensive roundup of campaign news delivered to your inbox for free each weekday.
    Map of competitiveness of 2020 Senate elections based on Daily Kos Elections qualitative ratings (dark gray states are Tossups; light gray states aren't up this year). Note that Texas was recently moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican and Colorado from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic. It’s our second-to-last installment in the Daily Kos Elections Senate Forecast, and the top lines still haven’t changed in the last few weeks: Democratic candidates still have leads in the Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, and North Carolina races, which is adequate to take back a Senate majority. The Iowa and North Carolina races are still showing relatively close margins, but those are two are heavily polled races, where almost all polls from high-quality pollsters show something very similar, so it’s OK to feel pretty confident about those two as well. There are, however, two other races where Democrats are playing defense, that have been mostly afterthoughts for the last few months, that have suddenly shown some interesting movement in the last week. One is in Minnesota, where most previous polls showed a Democratic advantage of around ten...
    Here at Daily Kos Elections, we live and breathe elections data, and we’ve collected a ton of it (most of which you can find here). But when you want to know more about a specific congressional district, it can be hard to contextualize hundreds of numbers across multiple spreadsheets. We’ve therefore added a new page for each district to our Atlas of the 117th Congress: a snapshot of key data. Pictured above is the snapshot for Texas’ highly competitive 24th Congressional District, where Democrat Candace Valenzuela is vying to become the first-ever Black Latina to serve in Congress—and flip an open seat long held by Republicans, who are hoping that former Irving Mayor Beth Van Duyne can defend it for them. You can find a full-size version of the snapshot right here, which we’ll walk through one step at a time below. We start at the top where, besides showing the obviously necessary information of which district we’re talking about, we note the vintage. Our first version is for the districts of the 117th Congress, which will be elected November 2020....
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