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    BILLINGS, Mont. (AP) — The Yellowstone National Park area’s weather forecast the morning of June 12 seemed fairly tame: warmer temperatures and rain showers would accelerate mountain snow melt and could produce “minor flooding.” A National Weather Service bulletin recommended moving livestock from low-lying areas but made no mention of danger to people. By nightfall, after several inches of rain fell on a deep spring snowpack, there were record-shattering floods. Torrents of water poured off the mountains. Swollen rivers carrying boulders and trees smashed through Montana towns over the next several days. The flooding swept away houses, wiped out bridges and forced the evacuation of more than 10,000 tourists, park employees and residents near the park. As a cleanup expected to last months grinds on, climate experts and meteorologists say the gap between the destruction and what was forecast underscores a troublesome aspect of climate change: Models used to predict storm impacts do not always keep up with increasingly devastating rainstorms, hurricanes, heat waves and other events. “Those rivers had never reached those levels. We literally...
    David Frum, who wrote former President George W. Bush’s infamous “Axis of Evil” speech in 2002, was obliterated online Thursday and Friday for criticizing the imprecise nature of weather forecasts. With a powerful nor’easter expected to blanket much of the east coast with snow this weekend, meteorologists are doing their best to prepare people. Meteorology has made leaps and bounds in recent decades, thanks to the emergence of new technologies. Still, weather models are often flawed, and so in an attempt to prepare people for the worst, meteorologists often offer ranges for precipitation, wind, and temperature. Oftentimes, people are unhappy with the uncertainty of weather models, and understandably so. Such predictions can lead to altered personal plans, shuttered construction sites, and emergency declarations — sometimes in vain. Frum, a man who should probably avoid criticizing any and all forecasts for the remainder of his life, appeared particularly peeved Thursday by models for this weekend’s winter storm. 1-6 inches of snow predicted tomorrow? Can you imagine if any other profession allowed itself a similar range? “Your plane will depart tomorrow between...
    By Giorgio Panetta, CBS2 Chief Meteorologist/Weather Producer Hello there! READ MORE: Johnson & Johnson COVID Vaccinations Suspended Across Tri-State As Federal Health Officials Investigate Rare Blood Clots Expect a calm and quiet night as high pressure holds strong for another day. Temps only drop to 50 degrees in NYC but expect colder conditions in the suburbs. A sunny start to Wednesday is followed by a partly sunny afternoon and temps will be mild! The future models are nodding at widespread 70s around the area, but some scattered activity is possible after 2 p.m. READ MORE: Demonstration Protesting Shooting Death Of Daunte Wright Briefly Shuts Down Brooklyn Bridge Heavy rain is still on track for Thursday into Friday morning. The models have shifted much of the heaviest rain just north and east of the last runs that had the bulk precip. over New Jersey. Half an inch to 1.5″ are expected. It will also be cold enough for some accumulating snow late Thursday night into early Friday morning as the storm exits. Trace – 2″ is possible. MORE...
    (CNN)By now, we all realize that long-range weather forecasting -- models that forecast beyond the next 3 days -- can be as useful as a gas tank in a Tesla, but there is increasing confidence that a major snowstorm is taking shape over parts of Colorado, Wyoming, and Nebraska this coming weekend. The models have been consistently showing for the last few days areas of snow accumulation over 40 inches in some places up and down the front range along Interstate 25.Early this week, forecast models were hinting at possibly even 5 feet of snow. The National Weather Service in Boulder was quick to point out it wasn't forecasting these totals. After a lengthy discussion on the possibilities in the forecast this morning "the messaging of 1 to 3 feet of snow for much of our forecast area is still on track," the NWS Boulder said.Winter storm for Friday and into the weekend. #COwx pic.twitter.com/6Dw6JVv31k— NWS Boulder (@NWSBoulder) March 10, 2021 Is it time to panic? No.Is it time to prepare for a possible 3-foot snowstorm? Yes.The heaviest snow in...
    DENVER (CBS4) – Colorado enjoyed a much needed break from the dry and warm weather on Sunday and Monday with widespread snow and unusually cold temperatures for late October. The change brought instant relief to areas being ravaged by out-of-control wildfires. (source: CBS) Unfortunately the break in the fire danger across Colorado will not last nearly long enough. Extended outlooks released by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center on Monday confirm what long-range computer forecast models are showing for the next several days. It looks like we are about to enter another extended period of warm and dry weather. The 6-10 day outlooks, which cover the period Nov. 1-5, show a high probability that it will be drier and much warmer than it normally is during early November. The same holds true for the 8-14 day outlook which covers the period Nov. 3-9. NOAA’s 6-10 day precipitation outlook issued on October 26. (credit: Climate Prediction Center) NOAA’s 6-10 day temperature outlook issued on October 26. (credit: Climate Prediction Center) NOAA’s 8-14 day precipitation outlook issued on October 26. (credit: Climate Prediction Center)...
    When freak lightning storms passed over Northern California’s wine country last month and sparked hundreds of wildfires, a newly established network of remote weather stations, orbiting satellites and supercomputers spun into action and attempted to predict the spread of what is now known as the LNU Lightning Complex fire. Firefighters and technologists have long dreamed of a formula or device that would accurately predict the spread of fire, much the way meteorologists predict the possible impact of extreme weather, but it’s only recently that big data and supercomputers have begun to show promise as a means of fire forecasting. “I think a firefighter starting out today in his or her career, they’re going to see something to the point where they leave the [station] on the fire, they’ll have a simulation on their screen of where the fire is going to go, where they need to do evacuations,” said Tim Chavez, a fire behavior analyst with Cal Fire since 2000. California Bobcat fire investigation includes Southern California Edison equipment California Bobcat fire investigation...
    John A. Tures August 15, 2020 11:12AM (UTC) This article was originally published on The Conversation. As the presidential election approaches, everyone wants to know who will win. But nobody wants to wait until the election is actually over and the votes are all counted up and double-checked. In an effort to predict the winner weeks, or even months, in advance, pollsters take to the phones and the internet, and academics take to spreadsheets of statistics. : Some of these analysts boast impressive track records, but take caution from a political scientist who delves into the data frequently: These methods may not necessarily be more accurate than any other method of predicting the future. For some, it's not so different from consulting Ouija boards and reading tea leaves. The next Nostradamus? Several political analysts have made names for themselves as predictors of election outcomes. : In the wake of the 2016 election, one political predictor, James Campbell at the University at Buffalo, a longtime professor of political science, said forecasting models had been more accurate than the widely swinging...
    by John A. Tures, LaGrange College As the presidential election approaches, everyone wants to know who will win. But nobody wants to wait until the election is actually over and the votes are all counted up and double-checked. In an effort to predict the winner weeks, or even months, in advance, pollsters take to the phones and the internet, and academics take to spreadsheets of statistics. Some of these analysts boast impressive track records, but take caution from a political scientist who delves into the data frequently: These methods may not necessarily be more accurate than any other method of predicting the future. For some, it’s not so different from consulting Ouija boards and reading tea leaves. The next Nostradamus? Several political analysts have made names for themselves as predictors of election outcomes. In the wake of the 2016 election, one political predictor, James Campbell at the University at Buffalo, a longtime professor of political science, said forecasting models had been more accurate than the widely swinging public opinion polls. He listed several examples, along with how well they had...
    (CNN)As the US heads into peak hurricane season, a reduction in commercial airline flights due to Covid-19 has significantly impacted our ability to accurately forecast the weather.A study out this week by Dr. Ying Chen, a senior research associate at Lancaster University's Environment Centre, highlights this problem. The study found that the "accuracy of surface meteorology forecast in March-May 2020 decreases remarkably" as flight density drops due to Covid-19. The research examined weather forecasts from March 2020 and compared them to actual observed weather in the same time frame. "It is the temperature forecast where accuracy went down," says Chen. Patterns of hot and cold air are critical in hurricane formation and prediction. If temperatures cannot be tracked accurately, it could be more challenging to identify hotspots early on. Read MoreThe forecasts that meteorologists create for hurricanes rely in part on computer models. These models are only as good as the data that is put into them.This data comes from a variety of tools, including aircraft, cruise ships, satellites, buoys, weather balloons, ground stations, and radar. The Covid-19 outbreak has...
    Showers/t’storms will develop mainly after 12/1 PM (starting N&W), then sag towards the boroughs through the remainder of the afternoon… the focus of the strongest activity will be mainly N&W today. Downpours seem to be the main threat with iso’d instances of damaging winds… even some hail can’t be ruled out. Outside of all that, expect partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies, very humid conditions and highs in the mid 80s. (Credit: CBS2) ***A heat advisory will go into effect at noon for northeast NJ and remain in effect until about 6 PM tomorrow. This was issued due to the combination of heat and humidity leading to “feels like” temps in the low to mid 90s today, and mid to upper 90s tomorrow. (Credit: CBS2) The shower/t’storm activity will wrap up by early to mid evening with the remainder of the night staying quiet. Expect temps to fall into the low and mid 70s. Tomorrow’s a generally quiet day… just a stray shower… but it will be hot and humid. Expect feels like temps in the mid 90s in the...
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