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    by Max Keating   The U.S. economy added 528,000 jobs in June, according to Department of Labor (DOL) data released Friday, more than double economists’ projections of 250,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate edged down to 3.5%, according to the DOL’s report, which was also below economists’ predictions of 3.6%, according to The Wall Street Journal. The economy outperformed last month’s high job growth of 372,000, which had itself outpaced expectations, indicating that the Federal Reserve’s interest rate have not begun to cool off the economy. Job gains in July were reported across the economy, but were particularly high in the leisure and hospitality, professional and business services and health care sectors. The labor force participation rate of 62.1% remained below its February 2020 pre-pandemic level of 63.4%. Over the last four months the average monthly gain was 388,000, according to the report. Payroll employment rises by 528,000 in July; unemployment rate edges down to 3.5% https://t.co/1Y9cSWJUIB #JobsReport #BLSdata — BLS-Labor Statistics (@BLS_gov) August 5, 2022 The U.S. economy has posted consecutive quarters of negative GDP, which some consider to be, by definition, a recession, according to previous DCNF...
    By PAUL WISEMAN WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers added an astonishing 528,000 jobs last month despite flashing warning signs of an economic downturn, easing fears of a recession and handing President Joe Biden some good news heading into the midterm elections. Unemployment dropped another notch, from 3.6% to 3.5%, matching the more than 50-year low reached just before the pandemic took hold. The economy has now recovered all 22 million jobs lost in March and April 2020 when COVID-19 slammed the U.S. The red-hot numbers reported Friday by the Labor Department are certain to intensify the debate over whether the U.S. is in a recession. “Recession — what recession?’ wrote Brian Coulton, chief economist at Fitch Ratings, after the report came out. “The U.S. economy is creating new jobs at an annual rate of 6 million — that’s three times faster than what we normally see historically in a good year.” Economists had expected only 250,000 new jobs last month, in a drop-off from June’s revised 398,000. Instead, July proved to be the best month since February. The strong figures...
    VIDEO1:1401:14Are we in a recession or what?Consumer & Retail Digital Original Video There's a lot of speculation lately about whether the U.S. is officially in a recession. Both President Joe Biden and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said we're not there just yet, pointing to the strong labor market and rising wages. The official declaration typically comes from the National Bureau of Economic Research, and it has yet to call it. But regardless of the country's economic standing, consumers are struggling in the face of sky-high prices, and nearly half of Americans say they are falling deeper in debt. "What really matters is paychecks aren't reaching as far," said Tomas Philipson, a professor of public policy studies at the University of Chicago and former acting chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. "What you call it is less relevant." More from Personal Finance:What the Fed's 75-basis point rate hike means for youWhat the latest interest rate hike means for your savingsNearly half of all Americans are falling deeper in debt Amid fears of a recession and rising interest rates,...
    Joe Rogan recently took aim at the Biden administration for denying the country is in a recession. On the Tuesday edition of his podcast The Joe Rogan Experience, he spoke with YouTuber Chris Williamson. In a clip from the episode, circulating Twitter via The Post Millennial, the conversation eventually turned to the state of the country, political climate, and President Joe Biden. “People would think that it’s trivial, cause they are talking about this economic downturn, but it’s not trivial because we’ve always used that term recession,” Rogan began. “We’ve always used that term to define whether or not the economic policies that are currently in place and whether or not the management and the government has done a good job of making sure that the economy stays in a good place,” he continued. “They definitely haven’t done that. So in order to escape that and, you know, that sort of distinction, they’re literally changing the definition, which is terrible and it should be pushed back against in a big way. It should be something that people...
    In the D.C. region, the maximum conventional mortgage limit (one that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac will purchase) is currently $970,800. At today’s rates, that is a payment of about $6,100 a month on a 30-year mortgage, or $1,400 a month more that it would’ve been a year ago. While most borrowers aren’t taking out $971,000 mortgages, it does demonstrate how much the rapid rise in mortgage rates in the last year has affected buying power. Ex-Fed economist Bill Nelson on Federal Reserve strategy More Business News More Real Estate News More Local News The Federal Reserve has raised its benchmark federal funds rate four times so far this year — aggressively at its last two meetings — to tamp down inflation, and that affects short-term borrowing costs, such as credit cards, auto loans and adjustable-rate home equity loans, but the Fed’s actions do not directly impact fixed mortgage rates, and a recession would actually be good for mortgage borrowers. “Longer-term interest rates, which mortgage rates are reflective of, are influenced by the prospects of future economic growth,”...
    Texas Senator Ted Cruz appeared to take a shot at President Joe Biden on Saturday by sharing a clip of his Democratic predecessor Bill Clinton stating that a recession is 'two quarters' of economic contraction. The Republican lawmaker retweeted a video clip of Clinton sitting at the White House on December 19, 2000, alongside incoming Republican President George W. Bush. Asked about his fears of an oncoming recession, Clinton replied, 'Well a recession is two quarters in a row of negative growth.' 'Bill Clinton was right,' Cruz wrote on Twitter. It comes as the Biden administration continues to deny that the US economy is in a recession, despite it shrinking for a second straight quarter late last week. President Joe Biden and his officials point to metrics like record job growth and steady levels of consumer spending to argue that the country is not yet in a recession - and previously claiming that such a downturn is not inevitable. The Clinton clip shared by Cruz goes on to show the former president presenting an optimistic view of the economy under...
    The U.S. economy shrank at an annual rate 0.9% from April through June, the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimated on July 28, 2022. It follows a contraction in gross domestic product of 1.6% recorded in the first quarter of the year. Some observers suggest the two quarters of contraction constitute a “technical recession” or the “unofficial start” of one, while others suggest it at least raises fears or signals it’s on the way. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell apparently thinks otherwise. On July 27, after raising interest rates 0.75 percentage point, Powell told reporters, “it’s a strong economy and nothing about it suggests that it’s close to or vulnerable to a recession.” Confused about whether the U.S. is in a recession or how to know when one hits? If you are, join the club. So The Conversation U.S. asked Brian Blank, a financial economist at Mississippi State University, to explain what’s going on in the economy and what factors determine if it is in recession.What did the latest GDP report tell us?The economy is really hard to pin down...
    Spencer Platt/Getty A person sleeps along Wall Street on April 28, 2022 in New York City. The U.S. economy shrank an estimated 0.9% from April through June, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on July 28, 2022. It follows a contraction in gross domestic product of 1.6% recorded in the first quarter of the year. Some observers suggest the two quarters of contraction constitute a “technical recession” or the “unofficial start” of one, while others suggest it at least raises fears or signals it’s on the way. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell apparently thinks otherwise. On July 27, after raising interest rates 0.75 percentage point, Powell told reporters, “it’s a strong economy and nothing about it suggests that it’s close to or vulnerable to a recession.” Confused about whether the U.S. is in a recession or how to know when one hits? If you are, join the club. So The Conversation U.S. asked Brian Blank, a financial economist at Mississippi State University, to explain what’s going on in the economy and what factors determine if it is...
    VIDEO4:4104:41How to prepare for a recessionInvest in You: Ready. Set. Grow. Americans want to know: Is this a recession or not? Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." In fact, the latest quarterly gross domestic product report, which tracks the overall health of the economy, showed a second consecutive contraction this year. More from Personal Finance:What the Fed's 75-basis point rate hike means for youWhat the latest interest rate hike means for your savingsNearly half of all Americans are falling deeper in debt However, both President Joe Biden and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said we're not in a recession just yet, pointing to the strong labor market and rising wages. "One question is answered, but a larger one is not," said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com. "We now know that the economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters. "It is not entirely clear whether a recession has begun given the continued strength of the job market," he...
    JGI/Jamie Grill | Tetra images | Getty Images As the U.S. economy shrinks for a second straight quarter — one definition of a recession — many Americans aren't prepared for an economic downturn. However, financial advisors say there's plenty that is in your control. Fewer than half of Americans feel "financially secure enough" for another recession, according to a survey from digital wealth manager Personal Capital.   Among those surveyed, the top fears include the inability to plan for the future, trouble paying bills or losing a job, the report found, polling roughly 1,000 cross-generation Americans in May 2022. More from Personal Finance:How investor portfolios are shifting as the Fed hikes ratesGaps in access to paid leave lead to financial hardshipsWhat the Fed's interest rate hikes mean for you However, the average emergency savings is roughly $7,600, according to the survey, which may be lower than needed. While advisors typically recommend three to six months of living expenses, other experts may suggest more for added flexibility. What advisors are telling their clientsWhile some indicators point to a recession, other factors, such as...
    "What Senator Clinton has said is that of course economists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth," Deese said in March 2008. \u201cBrian Deese, yesterday: "Two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession.\u201d\n\nDeese, 2008: \u201cEconomists have a technical definition of recession, which is two consecutive quarters of negative growth.\u201d\u201d — RNC Research (@RNC Research) 1658945401 The comments were made as then-President George W. Bush tried to alleviate recessionary fears. At the time and as Deese's comment reflect, Democrats seized on the moment to emphasize the unfortunate economic circumstances to help Democrats in the 2008 presidential election.Anything else?Fox News correspondent Peter Doocy asked White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre about the glaring contradiction on Wednesday, asking why the White House wants to "redefine" the word "recession" while at the same time downplaying the inflation crisis. "If things are going so great, though, then why is it that White House officials are trying to redefine 'recession?'" Doocy asked. When Jean-Pierre claimed the White House is not redefining recession, Doocy...
    Peter Doocy and White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre sparred Wednesday after the former pointed out that White House economic adviser Brian Deese updated his definition of a recession. The technical definition of an economic recession has been widely accepted for decades as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. Democrats have been accused by conservatives and others in recent days of attempting to change that definition. Deese addressed the issue of an economic downturn Tuesday at the White House. “I just want to make a final note on the definition of recession, which has been an issue that I know many of you have reported on,” Deese said. “As [Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen] said on Sunday, two negative quarters of GDP growth is not the technical definition of recession. It’s not the definition that economists have traditionally relied on,” Deese added. During Jean-Pierre’s daily briefing Wednesday, Doocy sparred with her over Deese’s comments. DOOCY: Why is it that White House officials are trying to redefine recession? JEAN-PIERRE: No, we’re not redefining recession. DOOCY: If we all understand recession to be two...
    New York (CNN Business)This week is something of an earnings and econ bonanza. We've got second-quarter report cards coming in from about a third of the companies in the S&P 500; a survey of consumers' confidence (spoiler alert: it ain't good); a pivotal interest rate decision coming Wednesday from the Federal Reserve; a reading on GDP that will fuel debate over whether we're in a recession at this very moment; and then a cherry to top this giant data sundae: the latest headline from the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — coming Friday. (So, be kind to your local business reporters, please.) It's only Tuesday, but already we've got a lot of fresh intel to chew on. Let's break it down. Theme 1: Pandemic fortunes are reversingRead More We've said it before, but it's worth repeating: The so-called winners of the pandemic — those companies like Peloton and Zoom that catered to life in lockdown — are reckoning with the fact that people are going outside (or into the office) again. ...
    Trays of beef are for sale in the meat section of a supermarket in McLean, Virginia, June 10, 2022.Saul Loeb | AFP | Getty Images Everyone who cares knows that recessions happen when there are two consecutive quarters of negative growth — everyone, that is, except for the people who actually decide when the economy is in recession. For those folks, at the National Bureau of Economic Research, the definition of recession is much squishier. Officially, the NBER defines recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." The bureau's economists, in fact, profess not even to utilize gross domestic product, the broadest measure of activity, as a primary barometer. That's important, because data coming Thursday could indicate the U.S. saw its second straight negative-growth period in the second quarter. Even though every period since 1948 of two consecutive negative quarters has coincided with a recession, that may not happen this time. Why? It's complicated. "The NBER would be laughingstocks if they said we had a recession when...
    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 10, 2022 in New York City.Spencer Platt | Getty Images There's a head-spinning amount of news for markets to navigate in the week ahead, the biggest of which will be the Federal Reserve's mid-week meeting. The two largest U.S. companies - Microsoft and Apple - report Tuesday and Thursday, respectively. Google parent Alphabet releases results Tuesday, and Amazon reports Thursday. Meta Platforms, formerly Facebook, reports Wednesday. In all, more than a third of the S&P 500 companies are reporting. On top of that are several hefty economic reports, which should add fuel to the debate on whether the economy is heading towards or is already in a recession. "Next week, I think, is going to be the most important week of the summer between the economic reports coming out, with respect to GDP, the employment cost index and the Fed meeting - and the 175 S&P 500 companies reporting earnings," said Leo Grohowski, chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management. Second quarter gross domestic product...
    London (CNN Business)If a recession were to arrive in the United States, there would normally be evidence of pain at America's biggest lenders. But so far, top banks aren't seeing major signs of weakness, even as they admit they're bracing for tougher times ahead. What's happening: Results from JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Citigroup reveal that while Wall Street has been hit hard by the deep market slump, Main Street is humming along. Credit card spending still looks healthy. While banks are putting aside more money to cover bad loans, they aren't seeing significant problems yet."If you didn't look at anything else — you just looked at the bank numbers — you wouldn't be thinking there's a recession around the corner," Mark Conrad, a portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, told me. Step back: JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon freaked out investors last month when he predicted an economic "hurricane" caused by the war in Ukraine, rising inflation pressures and interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. A plunge in dealmaking has sharply reduced the amount of money investment bankers are...
    Woman on her back pushing shopping cart in supermarket aisleDavid Espejo | Getty Images Experts are weighing the odds as to how likely a recession is and how fast it could come upon us. Most Americans — 70% — already believe an economic downturn is on its way, according to a new survey from MagnifyMoney. The online survey was conducted between June 10 and 14 and included 2,082 respondents. A recession is defined as a significant economic decline that lasts more than a few months. The biggest recession warning sign, which 88% of respondents pointed to, is high inflation. Respondents also reported seeing signs of an economic downturn in housing and rent prices, with 61%; rising interest rates, 56%; the stock market, 55%; declines in consumer spending, 42%; and rising unemployment, 36%. Some of those perceptions may lean on how people feel about the economy, rather than hard numbers. While the U.S. economy still has bright spots — including a strong overall job market and rising wages — higher prices have raised Americans' feelings of financial insecurity, according to Matt...
    (CNN)There are two important storylines about the US economy that often seem completely at odds with each other. Storm clouds ahead. It's the worst year for US stocks in a half century. Inflation may be driving the US into recession. Growth appears to be stalling. It's still a good time for workers. There are jobs aplenty. Wages are up. People who don't like their jobs can easily find new ones. For more on the storm clouds, see this report from Nicole Goodkind at CNN Business about how normally it is a lack of demand from consumers that can lead to a recession. Covid-19 has flipped that on its head. Now it's the supply chain issues, caused by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, driving inflation. Sagging demand could follow as government spending -- expiring child tax credits, for instance -- drops off.At the same time, the Federal Reserve's answer to inflation -- spiking interest rates -- is bound to hurt demand too. Mortgage rates are almost double what they were this time last year and there's...
    People walk by the New York Stock Exchange on May 12, 2022 in New York City.Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesWhat I am looking at July 6, 2022 Was Micron (MU) the first time we saw a stock rally after a forecast cut and was that because it sold at only 5 times earnings? If rates falling are a sign of a recession why is the most sensitive section to recession, the homebuilders, climbing? Or could the decline in rates be a sign that inflation is receding and the Federal Reserve is winning? Piper takes American Express (AXP) price target down to $163 per share from $202, worries an economic slowdown will disrupt discretionary spend and cross border travel even as there's no sign of that happening. PayPal (PYPL), a Club name, to $93 from $140; Block (SQ) to $84 from $105. Likes AXP more. Same with Visa (V) to $204 from $239. This one will trade with AXP. Mastercard (MA) to $298 from $357. Fintech remains hated?
    OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil output by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August – a larger-than-expected amount as the Ukraine war wreaks havoc on global energy markets.Ian Tuttle | Bloomberg | Getty Images
    A person walks through the Wall Street subway station near the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York on May 27, 2022.Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty ImagesWhat I am looking at June 30, 2022 Another broad market sell-off based on trying to price in a recession. It never seems to end. I expect Micron (MU) to be tough when it reports earnings after the closing bell Thursday, but I don't know whether it's in the stock. Worst first half of the year for the stock market since 1970. May personal income up 0.5% vs. 0.4% estimate; spending misses; core personal consumption expenditures, the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator, rose 4.7% year over year vs. 4.8% estimate. RH (RH) cuts full-year revenue outlook, a surprise based on interest rates worries and confidence. Bookends a really bad quarter by Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). But we aren't sure how much of the latter was execution. RH, formerly Restoration Hardware, has a good balance sheet but BBBY balance sheet is a bit of a shambles. JPMorgan cuts price target on...
    d3sign There has been a lot of chatter recently about the possibility of a recession. Yet what exactly does that mean — and what would a potential downturn look like? A recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and that lasts more than a few months," according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. More from Invest in You:Suze Orman: Every person should have series I bondsStrategies to pay off credit card debt as interest rates riseWhat the Fed's rate hike means for you It's also ultimately inevitable during the course of the normal economic cycle, said Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate. "It should not be shocking that they occur," he said. "It is usually the timing, the cause and the depth and duration of them that catch people by surprise."The risk of a recessionEconomists are watching the economy closely and many are boosting their odds of a recession occurring in the near term. Citigroup, assessing global economic growth over the next 18 months, sees a 50% probability of...
    Runaway inflation has raised fears that the economy is headed towards a return of stagflation but a host of Wall Street banks such as Goldman Sachs and HSBC believe there remains opportunities for investors to safely navigate this tricky backdrop.UCG | Getty Images The next big risk to the U.S. economy may be summed up in one word. And no, it's not necessarily recession, though economists are evenly split on the risks one are coming. Instead, 80% of economists in the same survey named stagflation as the greater long-term risk to the economy, according to the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association. The next biggest risk they identified was deflation, with 13% of respondents. More from Personal Finance:Stimulus checks rewired how some Americans see money43% of homeowners delayed home improvements due to inflationHere's what the Fed's interest rate hike means for you Moreover, a recent Bank of America global fund manager survey found fears of stagflation are the highest they have been since June 2008. Stagflation is "by far and away the most popular description of what the economic backdrop...
    AMERICANS have been suffering at the pumps in 2022 after gas prices across the country reached record highs. To relieve the stress ahead of the July 4th weekend, President Joe Biden revealed that he is considering suspending federal gas tax at the pumps. 2The national price per gallon is $4.98Credit: Getty What is the Federal Gas Tax holiday? On June 20, 2022, Biden told reporters in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, that he is hoping to make a decision on pausing the federal gas tax soon. "I hope to have a decision based on the data I'm looking for by the end the week," Biden said, via CNN. The pause would essentially save Americans around 15 cents per gallon, but it would require Congress to act soon. Read More on The US SunMORE RATE HIKES The Fed wants to help Americans avoid recession - what it'd mean for youNo Holiday Millions of Americans face gas prices close to $6 a gallon as deadline is missed One White House official told CNBC that getting Congress to approve such...
    WASHINGTON -- Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Sunday that she expects the U.S. economy to slow in the months ahead, but that a recession is not inevitable.Yellen offered a dose of optimism even as economists grow increasingly worried about a recession fueled by skyrocketing inflation and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.She also expressed an openness, during an interview on ABC's "This Week," to a federal gas tax holiday to help give motorists some relief at the pump. Several lawmakers have floated the idea as the average price of gasoline hovers around $5 per gallon; the tax is 18.4 cents per gallon."That's an idea that's certainly worth considering," Yellen said when asked if the administration is weighing it. She added that President Joe Biden wants "to do anything he possibly can to help consumers." And Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said "it's one of the tools," but told CNN's "State of the Union" that "part of the challenge with the gas tax, of course, is that it funds the roads."MORE: How to prepare for a possible recession in the upcoming months EMBED...
    Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on June 10, 2022 in New York City.Spencer Platt | Getty Images Stocks fell into a so-called bear market on Monday, after an intense sell-off that saw the S&P 500 Index shed 3.9% and fall to its lowest level since March 2021. But just what is a "bear market"? The term is used by investors to describe a steep and sustained market downturn. Technically, it's a drop of 20% or more from recent highs. More from Personal Finance:401(k) savers will see a 'wake-up call' in their next statementBefore you start investing, here's what experts want you to knowPandemic stimulus checks were a big experiment. Did it work? Investors commonly apply the phrase to a broad stock index like the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average, but it also works for individual stocks. The S&P 500 was down more than 21% from its January record when the market closed Monday — the first time since March 2020 that the U.S. stock index closed in bear market territory. Wall...
    NEW YORK -- Wall Street is back in the claws of a bear market as worries about inflation and higher interest rates overwhelm investors.The Federal Reserve has signaled it will aggressively raise interest rates to try to control inflation, which is the highest in decades. Throw in the war in Ukraine and a slowdown in China's economy, and investors have been forced to reconsider what they're willing to pay for a wide range of stocks, from high-flying tech companies to traditional automakers. Big swings have become commonplace and Monday was no exception.The last bear market happened just two years ago, but this would still be a first for those investors that got their start trading on their phones during the pandemic. Thanks in large part to extraordinary actions by the Federal Reserve, stocks have for years seemed to go largely in only one direction: up. The "buy the dip" rallying cry after every market slide has grown fainter after stinging losses and severe plunges in risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin fell below $23,000 on Monday. The price for Bitcoin neared...
    MINNEAPOLIS (WCCO) — Markets don’t react well to volatility, which doesn’t bode well when many Americans are increasingly anxious about an economic downturn. “The thing that is tough is that we’re human beings with emotions,” said Jill Schlesinger, CBS News Business Analyst. “When markets are volatile it’s not a great time to be reactive.” READ MORE: Federal Reserve Set To Raise Interest Rates To Slow InflationA new survey released Monday showed nearly 70% of economists who responded think the United States is headed toward a recession, which officially means a prolonged period of economic distress. The primary factor for the glum outlook: surging energy costs and inflation levels not seen in decades. “It doesn’t feel like there’s a bubble bursting all at once. No defining event,” Schlesinger said, noting the difference between this period and the years leading up to the Great Recession in 2007-2009. “Sometimes the very best advice is when that little devil on your shoulder says do something,’ I say don’t do something, just sit there.” Indeed, anyone sitting down on Monday could be forgiven for squirming...
    While President Joe Biden visited an Iowa biofuel plant in April to publicly tout it as one potential solution to higher gas prices, a Monday report claims he was privately expressing doubts about the strategy. Biden spoke at name of plant in Menlo, Iowa as the White House announced it would allow the sale of ethanol-blended gasoline known as E15 during the summer driving season of June 15 through September 1, despite its known environmental risks. 'I’m here today because homegrown biofuels have a role to play right now — right now — as we work to get prices under control to reduce the costs for families,' the president said during his April 12 speech in Iowa. But behind-the-scenes Biden was worried the initiative would do more harm than good - having little impact on Americans' pain at the pump while also aversely impacting his climate agenda, two people familiar with the issue told the Washington Post. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack reportedly convinced the president that it would at least help the Midwest, where the biofuels are produced.  At the...
    New York (CNN Business)Cardi B is asking the million-dollar question (Or the 20-trillion-dollar question, more precisely)."When y'all think they going to announce that we going into a recession?" the rapper tweeted this week. We wish we knew the answer, Cardi. After all, recession forecasting has become the national pastime of economists, market analysts, politicians and pundits around the world.That's because prices on just about everything are still surging, stocks are falling, Russia's war in Ukraine and Covid-19 scares are continuing to upend global trade. All around, the mood is kind of crummy — consumer sentiment hit a record low last month. Consumer sentiment plunges to record low amid surging inflationThat sour mood is almost entirely thanks to inflation, especially as gas and food prices continue their upward march into the summer travel season. Take away the price surges, and the economy is objectively in pretty good shape. Read MoreEmployers are hiring anyone they can; long-stagnant wages are rising at their fastest pace in decades; and, crucially, Americans are still shopping. But back to Cardi B's query: We won't know we're...
    People enter the Goldman Sachs headquarters building in New York, U.S., on Monday, June 14, 2021.Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty Images A long-running employee's market had made it difficult for employers to tug the reins and force remote workers back to the office. But times may be changing. Amid various business challenges ranging from market volatility, rising inflation, lagging revenue and a high risk of recession, companies are slowing hiring and, in some cases, letting workers go. Facebook parent Meta, Twitter, and Uber are just some of the companies that have pared back plans for new employees. Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi wrote in an email to employees that the company "will treat hiring as a privilege and be deliberate about when and where we add headcount." A Meta spokesperson told CNBC that "in light of the expense guidance given for this earnings period, we are slowing its growth accordingly." Carvana and Robinhood are just two of the companies that went through recent hiring streaks that are now letting workers go. "We determined that making these reductions to Robinhood's staff...
    New York (CNN Business)The American economy is super weird right now. Pretty much anyone who wants a job can have one. The economy is so hot that prices are surging faster than at any point since the 1980s. The housing market is on fire. Consumers are spending like crazy.Yet we keep hearing the word "recession" like it's 2007 all over again. What gives?The truth is that we're probably not in recession now (although it's possible), but there are plenty of signs that one is around the corner.Sign 1. The Fed is hiking ratesRead MoreInflation has been rampant, and the Federal Reserve's tool to fight surging prices lies in its ability to set interest rates higher. That makes borrowing more expensive and slows the economy down — on purpose.Not all recessions are the same. Heres what could happen to the economy and marketsThe problem is the Fed was super-duper late to raising rates. Inflation was a growing concern throughout 2021, but the central bank only began hiking rates in March 2022. So the Fed needs to play catchup — and take...
    New York (CNN Business)Economists, CEOs, Wall Street and Main Street are sounding the recession alarm bell.Most agree a recession could start to take shape in the United States over the next few months. The question is what shape that recession will take. Recessions and recoveries come in shapes and sizes as varied as the alphabet. Perhaps that's why economists have come to name different kinds of economic downturns after letters. But predicting which letter will match the situation isn't quite as easy as ABC. This looming recession is particularly complicated."Whether it's Covid in Asia or what's going on in Ukraine or what's going on with energy, it's one thing after another," said Nick Tell, CEO of investment bank Armory Group. Read MoreThe component of this potential downturn that's unlike others is "the psychological impact on the workforce from Covid and the enormous amount of subsidies that were introduced into the economy," said Tell. The resulting labor shortage is something that hasn't been seen outside of a wartime recession. "When you look at job openings relative to the number of unemployed...
    (CNN)The number of relatively frightening headlines about the likelihood of a recession is on the rise. A major recession is coming, Deutsche Bank warns Dow falls 800 points on recession fears 'Recession shock' is coming, Bank of America warns We're nearing a recession, if this always-accurate indicator is right again The word "recession," which generally refers to the downswing in a business cycle, has an ugly ring to it. A down economy is obviously painful for a lot of people to live through, even if it is a natural part of the business cycle.But while you're likely to see the term "recession" thrown around a lot in the weeks and months to come, the exact definition is not so simple. It is technically possible that despite extremely low unemployment and other strong economic indicators, the US is in a recession right now and nobody has realized it yet. Predicting if and when a recession will strike is hard -- even if the storm clouds always seem so obvious in hindsight.Read MoreWhat could cause a recession now?Inflation, or rising costs,...
    What we know today is that the consumer is under a lot of pressure due to inflation. The personal saving rate has dipped down to 6.3%, below February 2020 pre-COVID levels. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dipped to its lowest in more than a decade in March 2022. Credit card balances were up a whopping 20.7% in February, according to the Fed’s recent Consumer Credit data release. Retail spending is up, but the growth is slowing. So keeping an eye on future reports and trends is critical.Changes in inflation, including commodity pricesChanges in inflation, including rapid inflation, can be a sign of a pending recession. Increasing commodity prices, which are obviously linked to inflationary pressures as they trickle through the economy, can also flash a warning sign. Obviously, those indicators are definitely not bullish for the economy. Inflation is at the highest levels in four decades, and commodity prices are continuing to add to costs throughout the supply chain, impacting consumers. Yields on U.S. TreasuriesFollowers of the markets often look to the bond market as a prognosticator of...
    THE Fed is finally taking action on inflation – but experts fear too much aggression could trigger another recession. The latest from the labor department shows the consumer price index jumped by nearly 8% in February compared to 12 months earlier. 1The Fed will have to find a balance on interest rates to avoid another recession In efforts to tackle inflation, the Federal Reserve last week hiked the interest rate for the first time in three years. In other words, while prices might stop rising at such a rapid pace, borrowing will get more expensive. But the Fed likely isn’t done with one rate hike, as the central bank expects to move forward with several more rate hikes this year. The goal for the Fed is to get the inflation rate back down to 2%. READ MORE ON INFLATIONAISLE HAVE THAT App tracks where to find cheapest groceries as prices soar due to inflationNEW CHECK? $800 tax rebate could go to couples in this state to help with inflation While that could take a while, Fed chairman Jerome Powell expects...
    Members of the Federal Reserve are debating how quickly to reduce the central bank's portfolio of bonds, without starting a recession.Heading into the second quarter of 2022, the balance of Federal Reserve's assets is almost $9 trillion. The majority of these assets are securitized holdings of government debt and mortgages. Most were purchased to calm investors during the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and 2020's pandemic."What's happened is the balance sheet has become more of a tool of policy." Roger Ferguson, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, told CNBC. "The Federal Reserve is using its balance sheet to drive better outcomes in history." The U.S. central bank has long used its power as a lender of last resort to add liquidity to markets during times of distress. When the central bank buys bonds, it can push investors toward riskier assets. The Fed's policies have boosted U.S. equities despite tough economic conditions for small businesses and ordinary workers. Kathryn Judge, a professor at Columbia Law, says the Fed's stimulus is like grease for the gears of the...
    In this article .SPX XLE With the national average for a gallon of gas hitting its highest price since 2008 and the stock market on edge with the first land war in Europe since WWII being waged by one of the world's biggest crude oil producers, crude oil prices and energy stocks are an area of focus for investors. It is hard for stock market participants to avoid the question, are energy stocks, which have had a huge run since the pandemic bottom, still a buy given the geopolitical premium? But the related question could stop them in their tracks before continuing: will oil prices cause a recession? Bespoke noted last week that as of Friday morning, WTI crude oil was up just over 20% within the week, one of five periods where crude rallied more than 20% in a week. It noted that three of the prior four periods where prices spiked occurred during recessions. Rystad Energy, one of the top global energy sector consulting and research firms, expects a plunge in Russian oil exports of as...
    This article has been medically reviewed by Michael B. Ferguson, D.M.D., C.A.G.S. Associate Clinical Professor NYU College of Dentistry, Dept.of Prosthodontics, Dir.of Clinical Education, Co-Director Fixed Prosthodontics Clinics. Medically Reviewed Reviewed By Check Mark Icon A check mark. It indicates that the relevant content has been reviewed and verified by an expert Our stories are reviewed by medical professionals to ensure you get the most accurate and useful information about your health and wellness. For more information, visit our medical review board. A periodontist will harvest healthy tissue from the roof of your mouth or from a site close to the receding gum tissue. ArtistGNDphotography/Getty Images A gum graft is a procedure that is used to fix receding gums that can cause tooth sensitivity. Your gums are receding if they look like they have pulled back and exposed more of your teeth. During a gum graft procedure, healthy tissue from inside your mouth is grafted onto your receding gumline. Visit Insider's Health Reference library for more advice. If you look in the mirror and your teeth appear to...
    President-Elect Joe Biden. Night Owls, a themed open thread, appears at Daily Kos seven days a week Jason Furman is professor of the Practice of Economic Policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and in the Department of Economics at Harvard University. He served as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Obama administration. At Foreign Affairs, he writes—The Crisis Opportunity.  What It Will Take to Build Back a Better Economy: [...] The natural disaster is not over. The number of new COVID-19 cases remains high and continues to rise. The most important economic policy for a full recovery is to end the disaster itself. This means reducing disease transmission through mask use, social distancing, testing, contact tracing, isolating infected people, improving treatments, and, eventually, the wide distribution of a vaccine. Whatever amount of money the government needs to spend to achieve these objectives would easily pass any form of cost-benefit test. The United States can ill afford not to spend the tens of billions of additional dollars necessary to combat the virus itself. The economic problems associated with COVID-19...
    Black Americans leaving homes to start their own all-Black communities Playgrounds, airport testing, mask outreach: News from around our 50 states The Pandemic Recession Wont Kill Your Retirement Plan -- But Heres What Will Catastrophic thoughts about the future of our global economy have stood tall in the minds of most throughout the past six months -- and with good reason. Amidst great political uncertainty, social discord, and widespread economic strife, many people have felt that their chances of ever retiring are becoming slimmer by the day. It's now as important as ever to return to the basics of what actually will impact your odds of a financially successful retirement. Below, we explore five behaviors that are far more likely to impact your long-term success than the current recession. © Provided by The Motley Fool The Pandemic Recession Won't Kill Your Retirement Plan -- But Here's What Will 1. Not investing early enough One of the keys to understanding the benefits of compound interest is to first realize that money saved in the earliest stages of your career will...
    This article is reprinted by permission from NerdWallet. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and recession, many Americans are struggling to pay their bills — and as a result, credit card issuers are pulling back on the available credit they are offering consumers. That means not only is it harder to get approved for new credit cards, but cardholders are seeing credit limits on their existing cards slashed, too. “Lenders are being proactive by lowering limits and increasing score requirements so they are protected from a spike in defaults and losses,” says John Ulzheimer, a credit expert. He adds that even consumers with good credit are seeing their credit limits cut, and that he personally has had the credit limit lowered on two cards in the past month or so. Still, even in this climate, there are ways to increase your chances of maintaining easy access to credit, starting with these five steps: Work on your credit score Credit card issuers are trying to reduce their own risk by doing what is called a “flight to quality,” Ulzheimer explains. That means they are trying...
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