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    Employers in July hired more than double the number of people experts had predicted, 528,000, after many predicted the number to be just 258,000. Unemployment is now at the lowest level in half a century, at 3.5%. CNBC calls today’s report from the federal government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics “far better than expected, defying signs that the economic recovery is losing steam.” That was far from the only good news in Friday’s release. “Wage growth also surged higher, as average hourly earnings jumped 0.5% for the month and 5.2% from the same time a year ago,” CNBC notes. “Despite downbeat expectations, the July gains were the best since February and well ahead of the 388,000 average job gain over the past four months. “The bureau noted that private sector payrolls are now higher than the February 2020 level, just before the pandemic declaration,” a massive accomplishment, as economists are noting. Economist Justin Wolfers, a professor at University of Michigan, New York Times contributor and a Senior Fellow at Brookings sums up today’s news. “Put that recession talk away, and change...
    VIDEO4:1004:10St. Louis Fed Pres. Bullard: Hard to call a recession with a strong job marketSquawk Box St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Wednesday that the central bank will continue raising rates until it sees compelling evidence that inflation is falling. The central bank official said he expects another 1.5 percentage points or so in interest rate increases this year as the Fed continues to battle the highest inflation levels since the early 1980s. "I think we'll probably have to be higher for longer in order to get the evidence that we need to see that inflation is actually turning around on all dimensions and in a convincing way coming lower, not just a tick lower here and there," Bullard said during a live "Squawk Box" interview on CNBC. That message of continued rate hikes is consistent with other Fed speakers this week, including regional presidents Loretta Mester of Cleveland, Charles Evans of Chicago and Mary Daly in San Francisco. Each said Tuesday that the inflation fight is far from over and more monetary policy tightening will be needed....
    Stephen Colbert mocked reporting on the recession by CNN and MSNBC for seeming totally clueless. During Thursday’s The Late Show with Stephen Colbert, he stated what the definition of a recession is and played clips of CNN and MSNBC doing the Biden administration’s bidding in avoiding calling that day’s report showing GDP declining for the second consecutive quarter a recession. “So, we’re in a recession. Or are we?” said Colbert. “According to the White House, two consecutive quarters of economic contraction does not, in and of itself, constitute a recession.” “Thankfully, we have cable news to cut through all the spin and give us some straight answers,” he then set up the clips by asking questions they might answer. “CNN, we’ve had back-to-back quarters of negative growth. What does that mean historically?” He played a clip of CNN’s Matt Egan saying, “Every single time since 1948 that you’ve had back-to-back quarters of negative growth, you’ve had a recession, every time.” “So, that’s the case this time,” said Colbert. “That may not necessarily be the case this time,” said Egan. “Okay....
    New York (CNN Business)Here's the Big Thing to know today: The US economy shrank in the second quarter of the year, and that does indeed meet the unofficial criteria for being in a recession. But, as you probably noticed, we're not rolling out the R-word in any definitive way yet (more on that in a minute).The drop in second-quarter GDP activity — data that will be revised two more times — was driven mostly by a decline in inventory levels, my CNN Business colleagues report. Basically, businesses have been scrambling to replenish stockpiles that got drawn waaaaaay down during the worst of the pandemic, when all of us were stuck at home thinking about ways to spruce up the house or expand the garden. But now stores find themselves overstocked — we're all shopping a bit less now that pandemic aid has dried up and we're shelling out whole paychecks on food and gas. The economy is slowing, which is precisely what the Fed wants to happen so that prices can get back to normal. Read MoreSo we're not in...
    Despite the hand-wringing over a coming recession and sentiment levels dropping to all-time lows, the June employment report showed that the U.S. economy is alive and well. Jill Schlesinger  There were 372,000 new positions added and the unemployment rate remained at 3.6%, a tenth of a percentage point above 50-year lows that were reached in February 2020, before the wrath of the pandemic infected the jobs market. Related Articles Business | Jill On Money: Mid-year Q&A Business | Jill On Money: The upside of a downturn Business | Jill On Money: Will housing provide clues about the economy? Business | California economy chilled by Wall Street bear markets Business | Jill On Money: Scam alert Adding to the 6.7 million jobs created in 2021, total employment gains for the first half of 2022 are strong. In fact, the 2.74 million jobs for the six months from January through June is more than 20% ahead of the average gains for an entire year during the 2010s, according to Diane Swonk,...
    What if we held a recession and no one lost their job? The Department of Labor on Friday will deliver its report on its two monthly surveys meant to capture the health of the nation’s labor market. The first is known as the household survey and is derived from a survey of around 60,000 households conducted by the Census Bureau. Its main product is the unemployment rate as well as the various breakdowns along demographic lines and reasons for unemployment. The other is the establishment survey of businesses and government agencies from which we get data on the size of nonfarm payrolls, hourly and weekly earnings, the labor force participation rate, and average hours worked. It is based on the payroll period that included the twelfth of each month, which means it does not necessarily reflect any late-breaking changes in the economy. The data gets seasonally adjusted and adjusted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ estimates of payroll changes caused by the closings and openings of businesses during the month. One way to think about what a soft-landing would look...
    Harvard University professor Kenneth Rogoff warned of the possibility of a recession in the United States and predicted that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to secure a “soft landing” for the economy during a Wednesday appearance on the Fox Business Network. A transcript is as follows: MARIA BARTIROMO: I’m wondering if the sell-off in the price of oil has to do with these expectations that we’re seeing in this sharp slowdown in the macro. If you believe things will slow real fast and pretty significantly, you’ll believe oil prices will come down, right? Or is it a different scenario because of the supply and demand dynamics of not a lot of supply of oil and gas from here in America? KENNETH ROGOFF: First off, Europe is in worse shape than we are. They have the energy problem, dependent on Russia and facing the costs of the war much more. That’s also part of the global oil story. Maybe China isn’t picking up as fast as some reports are saying. The oil is a globally determined price. But the United States...
    London (CNN Business)Few investors will have experienced a tougher beginning to a year than the six-month stretch that just finished. Professionals have been beaten down, while amateur traders — used to 2021's eye-popping rallies — were dealt a harrowing reality check.What's happening: The S&P 500 notched its worst start since 1970, plunging 20.6% between January and June. The Dow had its largest first-half drop since 1962, and the Nasdaq Composite had its largest percentage decline ever. A nasty combination of circumstances has been hammering stocks. Russia's war in Ukraine has driven inflation higher, exacerbating concerns about how aggressive central banks like the Federal Reserve will need to be to rein it in. That's boosted fears of a recession this year or next. Coronavirus lockdowns in China, the world's second-largest economy, have also fed anxiety. Predicting what will happen in markets over the next six months is unusually difficult. The path forward remains treacherous, with the Fed pledging to move one month at a time."It's all about inflation right now," Markus Schomer, chief economist at PineBridge Investments, told me. "That's the...
    WASHINGTON (AP) — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there’s “no guarantee” the central bank can tame runaway inflation without hurting the job market. Speaking Wednesday at a European Central Bank forum in Sintra, Portugal, Powell repeated his hope that the Fed can achieve a so-called soft landing — raising interest rates just enough to slow the economy and rein in surging consumer prices without causing a recession and sharply raising the unemployment rate. “We believe we can do that. That is our aim,” he said. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine, he said, had made the job more difficult by disrupting commerce and driving up the price of food, energy and chemicals. “It’s gotten harder,” Powell said. “The pathways have gotten narrower.” ECB President Christine Lagarde echoed the “major impact” of energy shocks, which are rippling worldwide but felt acutely in Europe because of its reliance on Russian oil and natural gas. She also pointed to Europe’s proximity to the war in Ukraine and said how “energy was vastly underestimated” in the bank’s assessment of inflation. The ECB and...
    More On: cannes lions Cannes Lions nightlife roaring back at Elite G.O.A.T. Nation’s exclusive parties Dua Lipa heats up Cannes Lions with ‘hot and sweaty’ beach concert ‘So hot’ Paris Hilton beats the heat while deejaying Cannes Lions party Paris Hilton and Sam Smith party with media elite at exclusive French soirée NBCUniversal boss Jeff Shell is bullish on the economy.  “There’s a drumbeat in the market,” the CEO told CNBC’s Julia Boorstin at the Cannes Lions festival on Wednesday. “There’s not a slowing per se.” The exec said that two leading economic indicators in NBCUniversal’s business — namely the theme parks business and the advertising business — are not showing signs that we are headed towards a recession.  “Theme parks are going gangbusters,” Shell said of NBCU’s Universal Studios parks. “Hotel bookings are through the roof.” In terms of advertising, the picture is a little more mixed, he noted.  Shell was in good spirits after a late night at the the Medialink and iHeartMedia dinner at Hotel du Cap-Eden-Roc on Tuesday. Shell highlighted some positives for his company, including its streaming...
    On Monday’s broadcast of the Fox News Channel’s “Your World,” House Majority Whip Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC) stated that there isn’t any question that “for a lot of people,” we are already in a recession and that “If you can’t afford to buy gasoline, you are in a recession.” Clyburn also stated that while this is going on, “The investor class” and corporate executives are doing just fine and are still making money even though some individual investors are losing money in the market right now. Host Neil Cavuto asked, [relevant remarks begin around 3:30] “I think a lot of them are alarmed by what’s happening with the economy. I know the president says we’re not in a recession. Others disagree with that. Just out of curiosity, do you think we are in a recession?” Clyburn responded, “Well, for a lot of people, we are. There’s no question about that. If you can’t afford to buy gasoline, you are in a recession. The investor class in this country is not losing any money. Individuals? Yes. But as a class, investors...
    A down market, record inflation, record debt, consumer anxiety — in just a minute and a half on Saturday, CNN’s Matt Egan ran through a litany of issues that made it another “brutal week” for the economy under President Joe Biden. “This was another brutal week for the American economy. Stocks are down, inflation and borrowing costs are up. All of this is causing real economic anxiety for families,” said Egan in the report. That anxiety has been showing up in polls, including a Fox poll out this week with only 18% of respondents viewing the economy as excellent or even just good. Inflation has reached several new record highs this year and May’s increase in prices hit 8.6% — a 40-year-high. Egan pointed out that “the jobs market is still pretty strong, and that there’s “historically low unemployment,” but for workers the huge spike in prices overall, and particularly fuel costs, are acting like a pay cut; without a pay increase most consumers see their purchasing power going down and down. “The bad news is even the White...
    German Minister of Finance Christian Lindner said there is no need for concern about the stability of the euro zone.John Thys | Afp | Getty Images LUXEMBOURG — There is no need for markets to be worried about the stability of the euro zone, Germany's finance minister told CNBC Thursday following a recent surge in borrowing costs for many governments in the region. Yields for several peripheral euro nations rose last week after the European Central Bank suggested it would tighten monetary policy aggressively, but failed to announce any measures to backstop and support the more highly indebted nations. This created unease among investors, who fear fragmentation in the region, and pushed the yield on the Italian 10-year bond above the 4% threshold for the first time since 2014. "The euro zone is stable, the monetary union has [a] robust character, we have institutions, and we are considering measures to fight inflation, fostering growth and to safeguard the macroeconomic stability. Yes of course, we are witnessing some rising spreads amongst the member states, but there is no need for any...
    VIDEO1:5501:55Kevin O'Leary says the economy is much stronger than people thinkSquawk Box Asia The U.S. economy is much stronger than people think, and there's "no evidence" of an impending slowdown or recession yet, says celebrity investor Kevin O'Leary. "I'm not saying we won't get one, but everybody that's saying it's coming around the corner next week is just wrong," he told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Thursday. "There's no data, there's no evidence, there's no numbers, there's no inclination on the consumer to slowdown yet," he said. The chairman of O'Shares ETFs said he's invested in a wide range of sectors, from commercial kitchens and wireless charging to gym equipment and greeting cards. And he hasn't seen "any indication" of a recession. "I see their tear sheets each week. We don't see slowdown yet," he said, referring to a document summarizing key information about a company. "I think I'll be one of the first to see it. I'm sort of a canary in the coal mine in that respect." He said consumption is still doing well at the moment. U.S....
    New York (CNN Business)Recession fears may be raging on Wall Street and Main Street, but there are still some potentially good signs for the economy emanating from Corporate America's corner offices. Despite worries about soaring inflation and higher interest rates, big businesses are still in pretty solid financial shape. Corporate bankruptcy filings in May were down from last year's pace, according to data from S&P. In fact, filings through the first five months of this year are at their lowest level since 2010. Of course, companies are still feeling a pinch from inflation. Bond yields and the price of oil and other commodities have surged. There's more pressure to pay workers higher wages, too. But businesses aren't crumbling under this strain."The era of free money is starting to evaporate, but that doesn't mean were going into an era of high interest rates. Businesses still see a good economic picture even though there is this backdrop of negative news," said Frank Sorrentino, CEO of ConnectOne Bank (CNOB), a New Jersey-based lender."Unlike in 2008 and prior recessions, there is still a strong...
    Chuck Robbins, Cisco CEO & Chairman, at the WEF in Davos, Switzerland on May 25th, 2022.Adam Galica | CNBC
    VIDEO7:4707:47Recession will not hit stocks this year, Evercore ISI predictsFast Money While retail investors head for the exits as stock prices sharply fluctuate, Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel wants to put money to work. He calls the market environment very ugly, but he believes the economy will avert a recession — particularly due to healthy credit markets and continued gains. "The path to higher [stock] prices really is a function of being able to discount the macro news and focus on the fact that you're still going to have mid-to-high, single-digit earnings growth," the firm's senior managing director told CNBC's "Fast Money" on Tuesday. His S&P 500 year-end target is 4,800, which implies a 22% jump from the Tuesday market close. Emanuel contends much of the market losses were driven by retail investors who were overexposed to growth stocks, namely in Big Tech. "The bull case rests on essentially a drying up of the public selling of these stocks," he said. According to Emanuel, retail investors will return to stocks when they figure out employment remains strong and inflation is peaking....
    On Friday’s broadcast of Bloomberg’s “Wall Street Week,” Steve Rattner, who served as counselor to the Treasury Secretary in the Obama administration, stated that history “is not on the side” of a soft landing that brings inflation under control without causing a recession because there’s “no precedent” for fixing inflation in an economy as overheated as the current economy is without a recession. He also stated that economics isn’t the kind of science that can provide the level of precision avoiding a recession will take. Rattner said, “I’m not at all in the camp of those who think that a recession is likely this year or probably even the second half — or first half rather, of next year. But, at some point, it becomes anybody’s guess whether we’ll get through this without a recession.” He added, “History is not on the side of a soft landing. There’s really no precedent for bringing an economy this overheated, with inflation — whether it’s transitory, permanent, or whatever — running at this rate down to anything that looks like 2% without there...
    VIDEO5:1805:18EU economics chief says Russia-Ukraine war will lead to growth slowdown — but not a recessionSquawk Box Europe The European Union's economics chief says Russia's war with Ukraine will trigger a growth slowdown this year, warning the bloc's existing growth forecast of 4% is now no longer viable. European commissioner for economics and taxation, Paolo Gentiloni, said Saturday that the Ukraine crisis will usher in a period of lower growth for the 19 countries sharing the euro. The bloc's projection of 4% growth in 2022, issued shortly before Russia's invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, will need to be revised downward, he said. However, in an attempt to take the sting out of the downbeat assessment, Gentiloni said there was no prospect of a recession. "The good thing is that we entered this crisis five weeks ago [on] a good footing, and we were estimating for this year 4% growth," Gentiloni told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick at the Ambrosetti Forum in Cernobbio, Italy. "This will slow down, for sure, but the carryover of the previous situation of how our economy went...
    Stephen Schork is the Founder and Editor of The Schork Report, a daily subscription newsletter on the energy cash and financial markets  Gas prices are skyrocketing around the U.S. and there's no sign of relief in sight. If the average cost of a gallon of gas continues to climb, as I predict that it will, not only will hard-pressed Americans feel an enormous additional financial burden but the entire economy will face an increased risk of recession. It didn't need to be this way.  Delusional energy policy driven by Democrats' self-destructive climate change politics have hammered U.S. energy producers and left the county at the mercy of foreign adversaries. First, where we are and where we are headed: AAA reported Sunday that the national average for a gallon of gas hit $4.009 -- the highest since 2008. Last week, prices at the pump jumped at the fastest pace since Hurricane Katrina knocked out oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico in 2005. In the futures market, Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) peaked late last week at a...
    SUN readers have been proved right. Five years ago today, they politely ignored the threats, the bullying and the official advice and voted to take back control of their country. The experts were outraged. In BBC editorial meetings, bank boardrooms, think tank conferences, embassy buildings and, most of all, university common rooms, there was horrified disbelief. 3Project Fear? It's more like Project Cheer with no recession, no currency collapse and no job losses, says Daniel HannanCredit: EPA The working classes had refused to listen to their betters! People without education had fallen for lies and populism! Now the whole country would suffer! Except it didn’t. Not for the first time, the masses proved wiser than the elites. In 1940, ordinary people rejected the gloomy view that we had to reach a deal with Hitler and backed Churchill. In 1979, they rejected the notion that Britain was doomed to decline and backed Maggie. In 2016, they grasped that a great country can flourish under its own laws. Sure enough, the formal predictions turned out to be hogwash. Reading them five years...
    SACRAMENTO —  Poor planning and ineffective management left California’s unemployment agency unprepared to help workers left jobless by the COVID-19 pandemic, and it failed to address problems in its system that were known for nearly a decade, according to an emergency state audit released Tuesday. The report by State Auditor Elaine Howle was ordered by a bipartisan group of 40 state lawmakers who had criticized the state Employment Development Department for large backlogs of significantly delayed claims and its failure to prevent widespread fraud since the pandemic forced many businesses to close, putting millions of Californians out of work. “Although it would be unreasonable to have expected a flawless response to such an historic event, EDD’s inefficient processes and lack of advanced planning led to significant delays in its payment of [unemployment insurance] claims,” Howle wrote to the governor and Legislature on Tuesday. Howle said the agency was unable to automatically process nearly half of the claims submitted online between March and September 2020, and was forced to instead have the claims manually processed by staff. “As a result, hundreds...
    Here are Tuesday’s top stories:Personal Finance COVID-19 will cause twice as much homelessness as Great Recession, study finds Unemployed renters were spending virtually all of their unemployment insurance on housing costs before the latest stimulus.‘I thought dentists had some of the best job security’: More dental students are having second thoughts The average amount of debt dental school students take on is over $290,000. With divorce news swirling: how will Kim Kardashian West and Kanye West divide up their real estate empire? 2021 is starting off with a big-time celebrity shake-up: Kim Kardashian West and Kanye West are getting divorced.‘Deaths of despair’ during COVID-19 have risen significantly in 2020, new research says They were disproportionately experienced by working aged men, driven in part by synthetic opioids such as fentanyl, according to Casey Mulligan, professor of economics at the University of Chicago.‘The incoming Biden administration will be facing a mounting — not waning — crisis’ Layoffs rose to 2 million in November from 1.7 million the previous month, an increase described as ‘troubling’ by the Economic Policy Institute.The No. 1 job...
    Can Plesac extend Cleveland staffs run of dominance? Donald Rumsfeld Fast Facts Heres the No. 1 lesson Ramit Sethi learned from the Great Recession in 2008 There's no question that the coronavirus pandemic is upending the lives of millions of Americans. To navigate the financial challenges many are facing, events such as the Great Recession, which started in 2008, can provide helpful insights.  Load Error For Ramit Sethi, personal finance coach and author, the biggest takeaway from that time period is to get into the right mindset and be proactive so that you're never left without options.  "The No. 1 rule I learned from the last recession was: live to fight another day," Sethi says. "Do not allow yourself to get put in such a bad situation that your back is against the wall and you have only bad choices to make." It's all about planning ahead, Sethi says. If you're worried that your job may be at risk, make a plan as soon as you can that includes how you'll need to adjust your spending and who you...
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