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Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said Sunday on CNN’s “State of the Union” that the United States was “more likely than not” to have a recession within the next two years.

Anchor Dana Bash said, “Secretary Yellen, who has the job you once had, said this week, quote, there is nothing to suggest a recession is in the works.

do you agree with that?”

Summers said, “No, I don’t.”

Bash said, “You think a recession is in the works?”

Summers said, “I think when inflation is as high as it is right now, and unemployment is as low as it is right now, it’s almost always been followed within two years by recession. I look at what’s happening in the stock and bond markets. I look at where consumer sentiment is. I think there is certainly a risk of recession in the next year. And I think given where we’ve gotten to. It’s more likely than not that we’ll have a recession within the next two years. That is something we can manage. We’ve had them for the whole history of the country. We need to be prepared and to respond quickly if and when it happens. I think the optimists were wrong a year ago in saying we’d have no inflation, and I think they’re wrong now.”

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Why has the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago now, what is Trump being investigated for and what does this mean for the 2024 election?

Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida, was raided by the FBI on Monday, a high-profile move in the ongoing investigations into the former President.

While the FBI has not yet commented on why it conducted the raid, details indicate it was likely a part of an ongoing investigation into Trump's removal of sensitive White House documents at the end of his term.

FBI agents reportedly focused their search of the property on the former President's office space, removed papers and documents, and even broke open a safe.

The raid does not suggest that criminal charges are near or even expected – but the FBI would have needed a search warrant that was court authorized. 

How the raid could effect the 2024 election remains to be seen, but if convicted of violating removing documents from the White House Trump could face up to three years and prison and be barred from holding public office.

A source close to the president told NBC the raid is only likely to galvanize the president to announce a 2024 bid. 

The source also said the raid could spurn Trump to announce his candidacy in the hopes of shielding himself from prosecution through the long-held precedent that sitting presidents not be convicted of crimes.

Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort was raided by the FBI on Monday, a high-profile move in the ongoing investigations in to the form

Why is Donald Trump being investigated, and what is the evidence against him?

Trump is currently the subject of two FBI investigations - one into his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election and his culpability for the January 6 Capitol riots, and the other into his removal of White House documents at the end of his term. 

Though Monday's raid could be in relation to the January 6 investigation, previous actions by investigators indicate it is most likely a part of his removal of sensitive White House documents.

At the end of their terms presidents are required under the Presidential Records act to hand over all documents from their time in office to be stored in the National Archives. Another federal law, 18 U.S. Code § 2071, forbids the 'concealment, removal, or mutilation,' of federal documents.

Sensitive documents were previously found at Mar-a-Lago when the National Archives removed at least 15 boxes of records from the Florida resort, it was revealed in February.

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National Archives officials said in a letter to Rep. Carolyn Maloney, chair of the House Committee on Oversight and Reform which is overseeing the investigation, that they recovered 'items marked as classified national security information within the boxes' at the former president's home that month.

In the months following that discovery, Trump aides and attorneys were interviewed on numerous occasions in relation to other classified documents investigators thought the president was illegally holding, with a team of investigators even paying a visit to Mar-a-Lago in early June.

During that trip the investigators met with Trump's attorneys, Bobb and Evan Corcoran, according to CNN, and were brought to a room where a number of boxes marked 'Top Secret' were being stored. 

Days later, Trump's attorneys were contacted by the investigators and asked to better secure the room they'd been shown. A padlock was reportedly placed on the door of the room.

Secret Service agents posted outside the gates of Mar-a-Lago during the FBI raid of the property on Monday 

A police car stationed outside of the gates of Trumps Mar-a-Lago resort during the FBI raid on Monday

Why has the FBI raided Mar-a-Lago now?

Trump was in New York City at the time his Florida resort was raided. His son, Eric, said he received a call from investigators informing about the raid and that he then conveyed the news to his father. 

Eric said he was informed on that call that the raid was a part of a National Archives investigation.

'The purpose of the raid, from what they said, was because the National Archives wanted to, you know, corroborate whether or not Donald Trump had any documents in his possession,' he told Sean Hannity on Monday.

If Eric's account is accurate, it is very nearly certain the raid was a part of an evidence collection into the ongoing documents investigation.  

The FBI is barred from taking any actions that could be politically influential within 90 days of an election, and the raid occurred exactly 90 days from the November midterms.

Though Trump is not currently a government official he remains an overwhelming presence in the political arena. It is possible the FBI felt it was now or never to obtain evidence from Mar-a-Lago or else face the risk of compromising their ability to gather it later due to the 90 day election buffer.   

Eric Trump reportedly received the call informing the Trumps about the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago

The raid is also likely to solidify Trump's plans to run in 2024, a source close to the former president told NBC, and spurn him to announce his bid sooner rather than later

What charges could Donald Trump face and what does this mean if he decides to run for President in 2024?

If found to have violated the Presidential Records Act and federal law which prosecutes anyone who 'willfully and unlawfully conceals, removes, mutilates, obliterates, or destroys, or attempts to do so, or, with intent to do so takes and carries away,' the president could face up to three years in prison and be fined.

More importantly however is the stipulation in 18 U.S. Code § 2071 which says anyone found in violation 'shall forfeit his office and be disqualified from holding any office under the United States.'

If found guilty of a violation of that code Trump would not be barred from running in 2024 - charges and convictions for most crimes does not disqualify one from being on the ballot - but he could be prevented from holding office even if he were elected to the presidency.

Trump has not yet officially declared his candidacy for the 2024 presidential election, though he has dropped strong hints over the past few months. 

If he were elected and sworn in before being convicted, however, it is likely he could stay any repercussions owing to a long-held precedent that sitting presidents not be charged with crimes.

If he returned to the oval office it is also possible he could avoid any conviction altogether as he would have four years to maneuver and manipulate the personnel and workings department of justice and the FBI to his favor.  

The raid is also likely to solidify Trump's plans to run in 2024, a source close to the former president told NBC, and spurn him to announce his bid sooner rather than later.

'If he wasn't running before, he is now,' the source said, 'It pisses him off that they can do this to him. One way to get it to stop is to control the government again.'

Read more:
  • Trump's Mar-a-Lago searched by FBI in document investigation - CNNPolitics
  • How the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago could influence another Trump run for president

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